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Will the DOD adapt to the constrained access environment?

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on January 7, 2013


As studies by the CSBA and numerous articles and blogposts authored by yours truly have documented, the most pervasive and most lethal non-nuclear threat to the US military (other than the threat of deep defense budget cuts, of course) is and will remain the threat of anti-access/area-denial weapon systems, operated in many varieties by many potential adversaries, including China, Russia, North Korea, Syria, Iran, Venezuela, and Hezbollah. (China, Iran, and Russia have complete inventories of A2/AD weapons of all kinds, while the others rely on inventories of specific kinds.)

These weapons range from submarines and naval mines to short-, medium-, and intermediate range ballistic missiles to integrated air defense systems to cyberweapons to antisatellite (ASAT) weapons. They thus come in many varieties and are aimed at different types of American platforms, but their mission is the same: deny the US military access to a theater of operations (e.g. the Western Pacific or the Persian Gulf) or at least make it prohibitively expensive (in terms of casualties) for the US military to operate in that theater.

China and Russia have accumulated huge and very impressive arsenals of such weapons in all their varieties; Iran also has a very potent arsenal of such weapons to offset its purely conventional military inferiority to the US. (If Iran tried to fight the US plane vs plane and ship vs ship, it wouldn’t stand a chance. But by fighting unconventionally, with submarines, naval mines, fast attack craft, and anti-ship missiles, among other things, it could inflict high casualties on the US military.)

Iran has recently increased and modernized its inventory of such weapons.

North Korea has upgraded Soviet air defense systems, midget submarines, and over a thousand ballistic missiles which can hit any American base in Eastern Asia. Venezuela has modern Russian S-300 SAM systems and advanced submarines.

Given these facts, the US should be quickly shifting its conventional force away from short-range platforms towards long-range ones, and away from platforms suited only for permissive, benign environments towards those designed to operate in very constrained environments, such as heavily-defended airspace.

Yet, the DOD has not done so yet.

To be sure, during the next few years, the DOD did make the initial steps towards that goal. For example, it has begun the development of the Next Generation Bomber, with plans to procure 100 such aircraft; it has announced plans to add the Virginia Payload Module to Block V Virginia class submarines; it is developing anti-ship missiles of its own; it has asked the industry for designs of a new cruise missile; it is ordering further EA-18G jammer and P-8 ASW aircraft; it has invested seriously in cybersecurity; and it’s building Littoral Combat Ships with ASW and demining modules alike.

But those are baby steps, and progress in that regard is too slow.

EA-18G, P-8 Poseidon, and Virginia class orders have been slowed, as have been orders for Arleigh Burke class DDGs. The Navy wants to decommission seven Ticonderoga class cruisers (each of which can launch 122 Tomahawk cruise missiles or missiles of other types) and two amphibious assault ships. The Air Force is merely “studying” the alternatives for the next-gen cruise missile. The NGB is not scheduled to enter service until the mid-2020s, even though it is need now. The DOD is cutting spending on missile defense and ordering inadequate quantities of interceptors and batteries, while also cutting spending on the development of laser missile defenses that would be far more economical than kinetic interceptors.

Furthermore, the current and projected inventories of jammer and ASW aircraft, stealthy bombers, and submarines are inadequate and will be even moreso inadequate as insufficient numbers are procured. These platforms will thus be few in number even though there will be a great demand for them in the Pacific, the Persian Gulf, and probably elsewhere.

In short, the DOD is not investing enough in these urgently-needed weapon platforms and has ordered, or plans to order, insufficient quantities of them.

Meanwhile, the DOD continues to spend a lot of money on its large ground force and on platforms suitable only for permissive environments where the only opponents are insurgents unable to contest control of the air. The DOD wants to increase the number of its Predator and Reaper orbits to 65 with a surge capacity to 80, even though such drones cannot survive in contested airspace. It still wants to procure 2,443 F-35 aircraft, even though they are already obsolete and will become even moreso obsolete by the time they officially enter service later this decade. The Army still continues to develop a heavy mobile bunker for the Ground Combat Vehicle program. And even after the modest reductions the DOD plans to slowly make to the ground force, both the Army and the Marines will still be larger than they were on 9/11 or during the Clinton years.

Can anyone explain to me what is the purpose of such investments, other than to recreate the force of the past and to re-fight yesterday’s war?

The DOD is still not serious about adapting to the A2/AD environment. Neither are most members of Congress, who have imposed a deep budget cut diktat on the DOD while not allowing it to even make modest reforms in the ground force, healthcare programs, base infrastructure, or inventories of old and/or short-ranged and/or niche aircraft like the C-27, C-23, F-16, and A-10. That means the savings which these reforms would produce will not be cashed, which means less money available for long-range-strike platforms.

Moreover, under current DOD plans, Navy shipbuilding programs and the Navy’s ship fleet will decline precipitously (excepting only the LCS program), and it is the Navy and the Air Force, not the Army and the Marines, who will see the relatively deepest cuts to their accounts, which is ridiculous given that the USAF and the USN, NOT the other two services, will play the lead role in any A2/AD environment.

The DOD has taken some steps to adapt to the A2/AD environment, but these are only baby steps. In a future blogpost, I will outline the steps the DOD should make to adapt quickly and adequately to this environment, similar to the “31 initiatives” produced by the USAF/US Army AirLand agreement of the early 1980s.

UPDATE:

Air Force Secretary Michael Donley has recently reaffirmed the need for the NGB, while also demonstrating how little this program, and bomber programs in general, cost compared to the USAF’s total modernization budget:

“The new Long-Range Strike bomber is one of our top priorities and encompasses approximately two percent of Air Force investment. An additional three percent over the next five years goes to sustain and modernize the B-52, B-1, and B-2 bombers to ensure these aging aircraft remain viable.”

Posted in Defense spending, Military issues, Threat environment, World affairs | Leave a Comment »

Rebuttal of Ben Freeman’s and Kevin Baron’s lies

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on January 5, 2013


Kevin Baron, the defense affairs blogger at the E-Ring of the Foreign Policy website, published a ridiculous litany of blatant lies on December 3rd, related to Sec. Panetta.

Of course, the author, who is a strident liberal himself, approvingly quotes (and parrots the lies of) another stridently liberal anti-defense hack, POGO’s Ben Freeman.

 

Freeman falsely claims that:

 

““He sort of surprised us, more generally, how much of an industry apologist in all of this, the rhetoric he’s used — it’s almost verging on propaganda how he used to say sequestration was doomsday and catastrophic.” Gates, Freeman argued, really went after savings. But Panetta? “He’s been really more like politician” than focused on cutting wasteful spending.”

 

This is utter garbage. Sequestration, as documented in detail by myself and many others (including BPC, Heritage Foundation, AEI, and FPI analysts, HASC Republicans, Congressman Norm Dicks, and the DOD itself, and as agreed by the vast majority of members of Congress of both parties) will gut the US military through making huge budget cuts which, moreover, will be made in a salami-slicing manner: cutting 10% out of everything, the most politically convient way of cutting budgets. Thus, essential programs like the Next Generation Bomber will be cut equally along with waste like generals’ perks and DOD bureaucracies.

 

And yes, sequestration, or further deep cuts to modernization, or cancellation of crucial modernization programs, WILL gut the military. This is not “propaganda” or “industry spin” or industry shilling or scaremongering. This is a fact confirmed unanimously by all Joint Chiefs of Staff and other US military leaders. So, with regard to sequestration, there are only 3 possibilities:

 

a) The Joint Chiefs are ignorant folks who don’t know what they’re talking about; or

b) The Joint Chiefs are deliberately lying to scaremonger the public; or

c) The Joint Chiefs are right to sound the alarm on sequestration.

 

Which is it, Mr Freeman?

 

But of course, for Freeman and his fellow POGO anti-defense hacks, anyone who sounds the alarm over deep, damaging defense cuts is an “industry shill”, even if, like me, you have never worked in the defense industry. That mindset, however, only utterly discredits Freeman and POGO, not me or Sec. Panetta.

 

But this is no surprise. POGO is not a “watchdog” group. POGO is a group of very ignorant, but very opinionated, anti-defense hacks. It was founded in 1981 to thwart Ronald Reagan’s reconstruction of the US military and since then has advocated deep defense budget cuts and the cancellation of virtually every crucial weapon program – from the combat-proven M1 Abrams tank, to the cruise missiles that helped counter Soviet SS-20s in Europe, to the B-2 bomber, to the NGB, to the V-22 Osprey, to the F-22 Raptor, etc. It also advocates deep cuts in the military’s force structure, including its SSBN fleets, carrier groups, and the Army’s and AF’s force structure.

 

And if Leon Panetta – a man who (as HBC Chairman, OMB Chief, and WH CHief of Staff) presided over the deep defense cuts of the late 1980s and early 1990s and implemented deep weapon program cuts personally – recognizes that sequestration (or similarly-sized cuts) would gut the military, then it’s likely true and should be a red flag that sequestration would truly be deeply damaging.

 

Freeman approvingly cites Robert Gates, Panetta’s predecessor. But Gates – before and after his retirement as SECDEF – sounded the alarm over impending deep defense cuts, including sequestration, numerous times, including in his most high-profile speeches: his famous Efficiencies Initiative announcement speech of January 6th, 2011; his testimonies to the 6 Congressional Committees that execute oversight over the DOD; his famous speech to the AEI in May 2011; his speech at the University of Texas in late 2011; and, more recently, during a videoconference with the CSIS during a recent CSIS event. Gates has warned about sequestration’s damage in language almost as strong as Panetta’s.

 

It’s time that Freeman started taking everything that Gates has said into account, and started quoting Gates fully, rather than merely invoking his name and the efficiencies he programmed. (BTW, since Freeman likes Bob Gates and his policies so much, he should also acknowledge that Gates found, and repeatedly underlined, the urgent need for the Next Generation Bomber, which Freeman and POGO oppose despite the strong evidence of that need.)

 

It’s curious to see Freeman now acknowledge that Gates “really went after efficiencies” – until now, POGO has been vehemently denying that the DOD has made any real efficiencies. Just a year and a month ago, shortly after Gates’ retirement, Freeman’s boss Danielle Brian was vehemently denying that the DOD had made any real efficiencies, savings, and cuts, despite promising them, in her own attack on Sec. Panetta’s character and credibility.

 

By the way, the claim that Panetta has abandoned Gates’ efficiencies is false. Panetta has upheld all of them while finding additional $60 bn efficiencies of his own. And as the DOD has recently stated (as quoted here on this blog on Dec. 5th), Panetta has already eliminated 68 general/admiral billets, while 28 others will be eliminated once the Afghan war ends.

 

http://e-ring.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/12/05/we_did_cut_generals_pentagon_responds

 

BTW, Mr Baron, you need to get your facts straight, too. Gates was not the longest-serving SECDEF. Robert McNamara was. He served from January 1961 to February 1968 – almost all of the JFK/LBJ era. The second-longest (combining his two tenures) was Donald Rumsfeld (1975-1977, 2001-2006), whose combined two tenures were just a few days shorter than McNamara’s single tenure. The third  longest-serving (and IMO the best) was Cap Weinberger (January 1981 to November 1987).

 

Panetta has NOT been a defense industry shill. In fact, under his plans, modernization spending will see significant cuts, with or without sequestration.

 

Freeman, Brian, and POGO owe Sec. Panetta an apology, as do you, Mr Baron. But, being dishonorable anti-defense hacks, you will likely never do so. Shame on you for lying so blatantly.

 

Posted in Media lies, Military issues, World affairs | 1 Comment »

Rebuttal of Chris Preble’s/CATO’s blatant lies

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on January 4, 2013


On January 10th, CATO Institute Vice President for Foreign and Defense Studies Christopher Preble will hold a pacifist event at CATO titled “Overkill: The Case of Reevaluating U.S. Nuclear Strategy”. Leaving aside the fact that US nuclear strategy was reevaluated just 2 years ago, in 2010-2011, and more recently in the just-completed NPR Implementation Study, the fact is that Preble calls for far more than reevaluation: he calls for deep unilateral cuts in America’s nuclear deterrent. And that is absolutely unacceptable.

CATO falsely claims that

“The United States has far more nuclear weapons and delivery systems than deterrence requires. The triad of intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and bomber aircraft reflects bureaucratic Cold War planning, not strategic vision.”

Those are blatant lies.

Firstly, the US does not have more – let alone far more – nuclear warheads and delivery systems than deterrence requires. As the current STRATCOM commander, Gen. Bob Kehler, and his predecessor, Gen. Kevin Chilton, have testified, the current arsenal is “exactly the right size” needed for nuclear deterrence. (Remember that Gen. Kehler has spent his entire career working on nuclear weapons and their carriers.) And, as former Secretary of Defense and Energy James Schlesinger has testified, the current arsenal is “barely adequate”.

The reason why the current arsenal is the bare minimum needed is that it is barely adequate for 1) surviving a possible enemy first strike; and 2) threatening the vast majority of Russia’s, China’s, North Korea’s, and Iran’s military assets. To be able to do that, it must be no smaller than the nuclear arsenal of America’s largest nuclear adversary (currently, Russia).

Russia has 2,800 strategic warheads (1,492 of them deployed and 1,308 in reserve), untold thousands of tactical nukes, and a huge fleet of delivery systems: 434 ICBMs, 14 ballistic missile subs, 251 strategic bombers (64 Tu-95s, 16 Tu-160s, 171 Tu-22Ms) with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, and thousands of tactical nuclear delivery systems. Its ICBM fleet alone can deliver 1,684 warheads to the US, while its SSBN fleet could deliver 2,240 warheads to America if need be. Its 58 SS-18 Satan heavy ICBMs alone can deliver 580 warheads to the US. Each of its 136 SS-19 ICBMs can carry 6 warheads. Each Tupolev bomber can carry 6 nuclear-tipped missiles and a nuclear freefall bomb.

Russia’s huge tactical nuclear arsenal (estimated by the Obama Administration to be 10 times larger than America’s) can be delivered by a very wide range of delivery systems, including short-ranged ballistic missiles, ship- and air-launched cruise missiles, surface warships (nuclear depth charges), artillery pieces, tactical strike aircraft (e.g. Su-24s, Su-25s, Su-27s/30s/33s/35s, and Su-34s). Russia has at least 1,040-2,000 deployed tactical nuclear warheads (according to various estimates listed here on p. 6), and 2,000-4,000 tactical nuclear warheads in total according to ASDEF for Global Strategic Affairs Madelyn Creedon (p. 6).

Thus, Russia has 4,800-6,800 nuclear warheads in total, deployed and nondeployed, strategic and tactical.

Russia currently plans to significantly grow its arsenal of ICBMs and bombers. This year, the Russian Government tripled ICBM production, and by 2020, it will procure 400 new ICBMs – partly to grow the fleet and partly to replace older ICBMs. It is also developing a new heavy ICBM (to replace the SS-18 Satan), a new 100-ton missile with a “global range” and a conventional warhead, a new middle weight ICBM called the Avangard, a new “pseudo-ICBM with a 6,000 km range (to circumvent the INF treaty), and a new rail-based ICBM (which will likely be an RS-24 Yars derivative and/or the same thing as the Avangard). None of these ICBMs will be limited by New START. Russia is also building additional Tu-160 bombers from stockpiled components.

Because Russia was below New START ceilings, and because that pathetic treaty has many loopholes large enough to drive a truck through them, Russia is allowed to significantly build up its strategic arsenal. The US is not.

Overall, Russia plans to spend 21 trillion roubles (i.e. $770 bn) on new equipment during the next decade. This will also include spending on tactical nuclear delivery systems such as Su-34 aircraft and dozens of Iskander SRBMs.

Russia’s huge nuclear arsenal alone justifies the current size of America’s nuclear arsenal and constitutes the single largest threat to US national security, as documented in more detail here and here.

Furthermore, former Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Ellen Tauscher has admitted that “Russian overreliance on tactical nuclear weapons should be a signal to the US that some Russian officials are still acting and reacting according to a Cold War mentality.” Note that she said that about Russian, not American, officials.

China has at least 1,800, and up to 3,000, nuclear warheads, and possesses at least 36 DF-5, 30 DF-31/31A, and a number of DF-41 MIRVable ICBMs, plus 6 ballistic missile subs with a collective capacity to deliver at least 72 SLBMs (JL-1s and JL-2s). It has recently acquired the Tu-22M production line and intends to procure 36 such bombers, each of which can carry 6 nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. It is rapidly growing its arsenal of ICBMs, MRBMs, SRBMs, and land-attack cruise missiles (which can be launched for airborne, seaborne, and ground platforms alike and have a range of up to 4,000 kms).

Yet, under New START, the US will be allowed to maintain only 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and only 700 deployed (plus 100 nondeployed) strategic warhead delivery systems. Tactical nuclear weapons and their delivery systems (in which Russia has a huge lead over the US) are not covered, and neither is China’s large nuclear arsenal, which is not subject to any inspections or limitations, even though Russian generals such as Viktor Yesin (ret.) have called for China to be included in nuclear arms limitation treaties. China, however, has persistently refused to participate in such treaties or even to discuss the issue or disclose the size of its arsenal. In fact, the US is the only country in the world to have publicly disclosed the precise size of its nuclear arsenal: 5,113 warheads, deployed and nondeployed, strategic and tactical. (Per New START, only 1,550 strategic warheads can be deployed).

Last but certainly not least, the US has to deter North Korea and Iran as well, and has to provide a nuclear deterrent not only for itself, but also for over 30 allies who rely on it for their security and their very existence. Further significant cuts to it would force these allies to develop their own nuclear weapons, because they cannot bet their security and their existence on America breaking free of its “unilateral nuclear disarmament will make us safer” kool-aid.

CATO’s claim that the US nuclear arsenal and its triad structure (ICBMs, SSBNs, and strategic bombers) is a relic of Cold War bureaucratic planning is also a blatant lie. The nuclear arsenal’s size, as demonstrated above, is the bare minimum needed for the nuclear threats of today (if anything, it should be larger).

Furthermore, the nuclear triad is NOT a relic of Cold War bureaucratic planning; it is THE most survivable arrangement for any nuclear arsenal (more legs of the nuclear triad mean more layers of defense and more targeting problems for the enemy) and the only credible kind of a nuclear deterrent. Only such a deterrent can survive a Russian or Chinese nuclear first strike – thus ensuring that such first strike never happens.

Moreover, the nuclear triad has been repeatedly confirmed by the highest levels of the US government as the right arrangement for the nuclear deterrent: in the 1994, 2001, and 2010 Nuclear Posture Reviews, in the New START Senate resolution of ratification, as well as recently by the entire US Senate when it unanimously adopted Senator John Hoeven’s FY2013 NDAA amendment stating the Senate’s commitment to maintaining the nuclear triad and its belief that this is the best arrangement for the nuclear deterrent. Likewise, the House has passed an NDAA which – as House Republicans trumpet on the HASC’s website – upholds the House’s commitment to the nuclear triad and provides for the maintenance and modernization of all three of its legs.

Moreover, the US nuclear arsenal and fleet of delivery systems are already vastly smaller than they were at the end (let alone the peak) of the Cold War. In 1991, the US had over 20,000 nuclear warheads; today it has only about 5,000. In 1991 the US had over 1,000 ICBMs, SLBMs, and strategic bombers; today, only 450 ICBMs (going down to 420), 14 SSBNs (not all of which are at sea at any time or are fully loaded), and just 96 nuclear-capable bombers (B-52s and B-2s). The US nuclear arsenal is less than 1/4th of its 1991 size, i.e. more than 75% smaller than it was at the end (let alone the peak) of the Cold War.

Thus, CATO lied when it spoke of “the need to bring it [US nuclear strategy] into the 21st century”; that strategy, and the nuclear deterrent, have already been brought into the 21st century.

“Join us as Christopher Preble, the Vice President of Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, discusses U.S. nuclear strategy, and the need to bring it into the 21st century.”

CATO also wrongly asks:

“Can the United States achieve an effective nuclear program which makes us safer, while adapting to the need for a smaller defense budget?”

Firstly, the US already has a very effective nuclear program which keeps America safe 24/7/365. Furthermore, cuts (let alone deep cuts) in America’s nuclear deterrent would make America MUCH LESS secure, not more, for the reasons stated above. Furthermore, there is no “need for a smaller defense budget”; the total FY2013 military budget (as authorized by Congress in the FY2013 NDAA) is only $633 bn, i.e. just 4.2% of GDP and less than 18% of the total federal budget. By both measures, it’s the lowest level of US military spending (excluding the late 1990s and early 2000s) since FY1948. Even Jimmy Carter spent a larger percent of GDP and the federal budget on the military.

Moreover, the entire nuclear arsenal, along with its supporting facilities, costs only $32 bn per year to maintain (per the Stimson Center), which is only 5% of the total military budget. So, even as the defense budget is being reduced, there is no need to cut funding for the nuclear deterrent. In fact, such cuts would be foolish and suicidal.

Further recommended reading: http://missilethreat.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/WebPage.pdf; http://missilethreat.com/russia-developing-new-long-range-ballistic-missile-2/.

Posted in Ideologies, Military issues, World affairs | Leave a Comment »

China acquires the Tu-22M production line; intends to build 36 bombers

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on January 2, 2013


Well, lookie here. China Times reports that the PRC has bought the Tu-22M production line from Russia and intends to build at least 36 Tu-22MB bombers domestically. Because China lacks some of the components for these aircraft, it will import them from Russia, a willing seller.

Thus, China will, by the end of this decade, have at least 36 to complement its H-6 bomber fleet. In other words, it will have a long range bomber force like Russia’s Dalnaya Aviatsia (Long-Range Aviation).

Dr Carlo Kopp’s question whether China would acquire such a fleet or not (in 2010, he said it “remains to be seen”) has now been answered.

The Tu-22M can carry a freefall nuclear bomb (like the ones that China’s H-6 bombers can carry) and 6 cruise missiles of various types – nuclear and conventional, anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles alike. Such bombers could be used to strike ground targets far away or to attack American ships in and even beyond the Second Island Chain in the Western Pacific.

In general, this demonstrates that China is now working hard to close one of the few gaps that remain between it and the US, and that it is on track to become the world’s largest military power by no later than the early 2020s.

Posted in Military issues, World affairs | Leave a Comment »

Why America must always retain a large nuclear deterrent

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on December 30, 2012


Last month, while the US observed the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the opponents of a strong defense cynically used that month and that anniversary to call for America’s nuclear disarmament. They are wrong. The Cuban Missile Crisis, contrary to their claims,  proved that nuclear deterrence actually works. Moreover, America cannot afford to disarm itself – whether uni-, bi-, or multilaterally – and must always maintain a large nuclear deterrent.

This also means that any proposals to further cut the US nuclear arsenal – made by the usual suspects, the ACA, the Council for a Livable World, Ploughshares, the PDA, and the CATO Institute – must be completely rejected. Here’s why. Here’s also why a large nuclear arsenal will always be needed.

The needed size of the arsenal – i.e. how many warheads and delivery systems the US needs – is always driven by two needs: a) to be able to survive an enemy first strike in case it happens, and b) to be able to threaten the majority, if not all (100% is rarely possible) military and strategically important economic assets of an enemy. This means not only his ICBM, SSBN, and bomber bases plus the SSBNs and ICBM launchers themselves, but also his conventional military assets and important non-military assets.

Both of these needs must be met for deterrence to be possible at all.

An enemy will refrain from attacking ONLY if he concludes, after consideration, that the consequences of an attack (i.e. an American counterattack on him) would be too grave for him to start a fight. This is how deterrence, including nuclear deterrence, works.

The larger the enemy’s nuclear arsenal is (not to mention his conventional force), the larger arsenal is required to survive his first blow and to be able to threaten a decisive majority of his military assets.

If at least one of your potential adversaries has a large nuclear arsenal, you must have a large one, too, and one sufficiently sized to survive his first blow and to hold the vast majority of his assets at risk.

Furthermore, your arsenal must not only be large, but also diverse, and must consist of survivable assets. This means you must have a nuclear triad (so as not to rely on just one or two modes of nuclear delivery), and it must be equipped with survivable assets: very quiet SSBNs, widely dispersed bombers (some of which must be airborne at any time), and ICBMs in hardened siloes or on mobile launchers.

Currently, America’s largest nuclear-armed adversary is Russia. It has 2,800 strategic warheads (of which at least 1,492 are currently deployed and the rest are in storage and can be deployed anytime if need be) and untold thousands of tactical nuclear warheads. We don’t know how many, because Russia refuses to say, but the Obama Administration says Moscow has 10 times more of these weapons than the US has, i.e. 4000 to 400. Russia’s advantage in tactical nuclear weapons is balanced by America’s current lead in strategic nuclear warheads (the vast majority of America’s 5,000 nuclear warheads are strategic) and their delivery systems (450 ICBMs, a handful of B-52 and B-2 bombers, and 14 SSBNs capable of launching 24 submarine-launched ballistic missiles each, and each SLBM can carry 8 warheads).

To deliver its strategic warheads, Russia currently has:

  • 434 ICBMs: 58 SS-18 Satan, 136 SS-19 Stilletto, 141 SS-25 Sickle, 74 SS-27 Sickle-B, and 18 RS-24/SS-29 Yars ICBMs. A single SS-18 can carry 10 warheads (plus 30 penetration aids), a single SS-19 Stilletto 6 warheads, and a single Yars 4 or more. The SS-25 Sickle and SS-27 Sickle-B are single-warhead missiles, although the SS-27 may be MIRVable. Collectively, this ICBM fleet could deliver at least 1,684 strategic warheads to the US if need be.
  • 14 SSBNs: 1 Typhoon class (capable of carrying 20 SLBMs), 1 Borei class, 5 Delta III class, and 7 Delta IV class SSBNs. All of them but the Typhoon can carry 16 SLBMs each. How many warheads they can carry depends on the missile type being carried. The R-29RMU Sinyeva can carry four warheads, while the R-29RMU2 Liner can carry twelve and the Bulava, scheduled to enter service next year, can carry ten. The sole Typhoon class sub has tested all of these missile types. One Delta III class sub, the Petropavlovsk Kamchatskiy, is in reserve and awaits replacement by a Borei class sub. Collectively, the Russian SSBN fleet could, if loaded with Bulavas or Liners, deliver at least 2,240 warheads to the US.
  • Over 200 strategic bombers: 64 Tu-95s, 16 Tu-160s, and 171 Tu-22Ms, each of which can carry 6 nuclear-tipped cruise missiles on its wings, while the Tu-95 and Tu-22M can also carry nuclear freefall bombs. Russia is now growing its Tu-160 fleet, while the Tu-95 is reported by one source to be able to carry more than 6 cruise missiles. That source claims that the Tu-95 fleet can collectively carry 704 nuclear-tipped missiles. In any event, New START counts only bombers, not the cruise missiles they carry, and every bomber, no matter how many cruise missiles it carries, is counted as just one weapon.

So Russia has a huge strategic nuclear arsenal and the means to deliver all of it. (This is to say nothing of its even larger tactical nuclear arsenal.) To unilaterally disarm or even cut America’s nuclear deterrent further in the face of this huge Russian arsenal would be worse than an utter folly. It would be downright suicidal.

A much smaller nuclear arsenal – such as the one proposed by the forementioned pro-disarmament organizations (around 1,000 warheads and no more than 300 ICBMs and 8 SSBNs) – would be so small that it would be easy for Russia to destroy in a nuclear first strike. A mere 300 ICBMs, a few noisy Ohio class SSBNs at sea, two well-known SSBN bases, and a handful of bomber bases whose locations are also well known, would be far easier for Russia’s huge nuclear arsenal (see above) to destroy than 450 ICBMs, 10 SSBNs at sea (especially if they were SSBNX or Virginia class derivative boats), and bombers on patrol in the air.

A much smaller nuclear arsenal would also be unable to threaten (and if need be, obliterate) the majority (let alone all) of Russian military assets, including (but not limited to) its ICBM siloes and bases, SRBM bases, bomber and tactical strike aircraft bases, SSBN bases, subs at sea, and other (non-nuclear-related) military assets. That, in turn, would make such a small arsenal non-credible and thus end nuclear deterrence.

Thus, with further deep cuts to America’s nuclear deterrent, NEITHER of the two needs that must be met for the enemy to be deterred would be met. In other words, further deep nuclear arsenal cuts would undermine nuclear deterrence in two ways: by making the arsenal too small to be survivable, and by making it too small to be able to threaten most enemy military assets.

It needs to be underlined that an enemy will be deterred from attacking if, and ONLY IF, the US nuclear arsenal is large enough to survive an enemy first strike AND if it’s large enough to hold most (if not virtually all) enemy military assets at risk (which is determined by how many assets the enemy has; Russia has thousands of them, including those listed above).

A Russian arsenal of 434 (and counting) ICBMs, 14 SSBNs with hundreds of SLBMs onboard, over 240 strategic bombers, hundreds of tactical strike aircraft, dozens of AF/Navy bases, nuclear facilities, and goodness knows how many tactical nuclear weapon delivery systems cannot be held at risk by an arsenal of just a few hundred, or even 1,000, warheads atop a small number of delivery systems such as a mere 300 ICBMs and a few SSBNs at sea. Holding Russia’s huge nuclear complex at risk requires thousands of warheads – not a mere 1,000 or 300 – and a large fleet of delivery systems. The Heritage Foundation has concluded that the US needs 2,700-3,000 nuclear warheads to be deployed.[1]

And it wouldn’t be expensive. The entire nuclear arsenal – the nuclear warheads, their delivery systems, and the supporting facilities and programs cost only $32 bn per year (according to the Stimson Center) or $38 bn per numbers from a 2009 Carnegie Study[2], which amounts to only 5-6% of the total FY2013 military budget ($631 bn per the FY2013 NDAA) and just 1% of the total military budget. America’s nuclear arsenal is not siphoning money away from any other program – military or nonmilitary. Its budget is too small to do that.

So a sufficiently large nuclear arsenal can affordably be, and must be, provided to deter the enemy, as required by the US Constitution, which requires the federal government to provide for the common defense.

[1] Rebeccah Heinrichs, Baker Spring, Detterence and Nuclear Targeting in the 21st Century, the Heritage Foundation, URL: http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/11/deterrence-and-nuclear-targeting-in-the-21st-century. Retrieved on December 25th, 2012.

[2] In its study, however – which was evidently aimed at exaggerating the cost of the nuclear deterrent – Carnegie wrongly included the cost of missile defense programs, which are not a part of the nuclear deterrent, and of nonproliferation/threat reduction programs, which are also not a part of that nuclear deterrent. Neither of these programs were spawned by America’s nuclear arsenal, their costs are not due to that arsenal, and are not related to that arsenal’s cost in any way. If these two nonrelevant categories of programs are excluded, the nuclear arsenal’s cost (in FY2008 dollars) is $38 bn, not $52 bn as Carnegie claimed.

Posted in Military issues, World affairs | Leave a Comment »

Further defense cuts would gut the military

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on December 29, 2012


As the deadline to deal with defense spending sequestration nears, the opponents of a strong defense  are trying to lull the American people into a false sense of security by downplaying and vastly understating the threats posed to America’s security by Russia, China, and others, and such lowballing of these threats is supposed to justify cuts to America’s defense.

But they are lying, and in this article, I’ll show you why.

The fact is that over the last 12 years (and in China’s case, over the last 22 years), America’s potential adversaries, including Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, have been conducting military buildups that far exceed their legitimate self-defense requirements. I will demonstrate their military capabilities country by country and explain why they threaten the US.

Russia

Russia’s biggest military asset is its vast nuclear arsenal. Although reduced since the Soviet times, it’s still huge. Russia currently has 1,492 deployed and hundreds of additional nondeployed strategic nuclear warheads, all of which can be delivered to the US. Since the ratification of New START, which obligates only the US (not Russia) to reduce its nuclear arsenal, Russia has been building up its strategic arsenal up to New START limits, exactly as it said it intended to when New START was ratified in early 2011.

Russia currently has up to 472 intercontinental ballistic missiles: 58 SS-18, 132 SS-19, 144 SS-25, 74 SS-27, and 18 RS-24 ICBMs. The US has 450. Thus, Russia already has somewhat more ICBMs than the US is allowed to have under New START (434 vs 420). Russia plans to procure 400 new ICBMs by 2020 and to develop two new ICBM types – including a new heavy ICBM, the “Son of Satan”, i.e. a replacement for the SS-18 Satan. More on Russia’s nuclear modernization programs here.

The Russian Navy has 13 operational SSBNs (4 Delta III class, 7 Delta IV class, 1 Borei class, and 1 Typhoon class) ballistic missile submarines, with 16 missile tubes each. Their SLBMs have a range of over 10,000 kilometers, meaning they can reach any target in the CONUS while being in their home waters or even in homeport, and have had that capability since the late 1980s.

Russia’s Dalnaya Aviatsya (Long Range Aviation) has 63 Tu-95 and at least 16 Tu-160 intercontinental nuclear-capable bombers, each of which is capable of delivering multiple nuclear-tipped missiles and nuclear freefall bombs. Russia resumed their strategic flights in 2007 and since then, American, Canadian, and European fighters have often had to scramble and intercept them near American, Canadian, and European airspace. Russian bombers and their support aircraft have also held multiple exercises since 2007, most recently in June and July 2012 near Alaska and California, when the Russians said they were “practicing attacking the enemy”.

Russia’s Dalnaya Aviatsya also has 151 (171 according to Sean O’Connor) Tu-22M strategic bombers (plus another 93 in reserve) which, with aerial refueling, have intercontinental range, and yet, they are not counted as intercontinental bombers under New START (nor were they under SALT-II). The Russians made the Tu-22M air-refuelable despite Brezhnev’s promises (which Jimmy Carter bought) that they wouldn’t. To refuel them, Russia has Il-78 tankers.

Moscow has now begun producing additional Tu-160s from stockpiled components and is developing a next-generation strategic bomber, the PAK DA (Prospektivnoi Aviatsonnyi Kompleks Dalnoy Aviatsii).

Russia is now procuring Su-34 bombers to partially replace the Tu-22M fleet, with 16 in service and 200 planned in total, which will free the Russians to sell some Tu-22Ms to China (which has already tried to buy them once).

Russia also has a tremendous lead over the US in tactical nuclear weapons: it has untold thousands of them, while the US has only ca. 400, all of them old nuclear bombs in urgent need of modernization. Russia’s tactical nukes can be delivered by a wide range of systems: short-range BMs, torpedoes, artillery, and a wide range of Tupolev and Sukhoi aircraft.

Russia’s huge tactical nuclear arsenal (estimated by the Obama Administration to be 10 times larger than America’s) can be delivered by a very wide range of delivery systems, including short-ranged ballistic missiles, ship- and air-launched cruise missiles, surface warships (nuclear depth charges), artillery pieces, tactical strike aircraft (e.g. Su-24s, Su-25s, Su-27s/30s/33s/35s, and Su-34s). Russia has at least 1,040-2,000 deployed tactical nuclear warheads (according to various estimates listed here on p. 6), and 2,000-4,000 tactical nuclear warheads in total according to ASDEF for Global Strategic Affairs Madelyn Creedon (p. 6).

Russia currently plans to significantly grow its arsenal of ICBMs and bombers. This year, the Russian Government tripled ICBM production, and by 2020, it will procure 400 new ICBMs – partly to grow the fleet and partly to replace older ICBMs. It is also developing a new heavy ICBM (to replace the SS-18 Satan), a new 100-ton missile with a “global range” and a conventional warhead, a new middle weight ICBM called the Avangard, and a new rail-based ICBM (which will likely be an RS-24 Yars derivative). None of these ICBMs will be limited by New START. Russia is also building additional Tu-160 bombers from stockpiled components. Because Russia was below New START ceilings, and because that pathetic treaty has many loopholes large enough to drive a truck through them, Russia is allowed to significantly build up its strategic arsenal. The US is not.

Overall, Russia plans to spend 21 trillion roubles (i.e. $770 bn) on new equipment during the next decade.

In tactical fighter aviation, Russia has several hundred modern, capable fighters: 293 Su-27, 15 Su-30, and 9 Su-35S Flankers, with a total of 30 Su-30s and 48 Su-35s on order. These enjoy parity with the F-15 and are decisively superior to the F-16 and the F/A-18, which have decisively inferior thrust/weight and wingloading ratios, radar, turning capability, and combat radius. The F/A-18 is inferior, and the F-16 barely equal, to the MiG-29, a Russian fighter first flown in the late 1970s, widely exported, and still in use (226 in Russian inventory) and being upgraded. The Russians are now developing (together with India) the Sukhoi PAKFA, a stealthy 5th generation fighter almost equal to the F-22 Raptor and decisively superior to all other Western fighters, current and planned, including the F-35. It is intended for high number production, with several hundred to be ordered by Moscow and Delhi, and sure to be exported around the world just like previous Russian fighters, including Flankers, were.

Russia’s SAM system network is even more deadly. In addition to very capable Soviet SAM systems such as the mobile Kub (SA-6 Gainful) and Buk (SA-11/SA-17 Grizzly), Russia also has deployed a large number of modern (1990s and 2000s’ era) S-300 systems which can easily detect and shoot down all nonstealthy aircraft, and a growing number of S-400 systems, which were first deployed in 2004. Their radars and missiles have ranges measured in hundreds of kilometers, and are cued by a very extensive network of radars.

Russia has also deployed huge numbers of modern point-defense systems such as the Tunguska, the Tor-M1, and the Pantsir-S1, which defend the forementioned SAM systems and other assets from precision guided munitions such as cruise and anti-air-defense missiles. This means that the default tactic of attacking enemy targets with cruise missiles like the Tomahawk and the ALCM or SAM systems with the AGM-88 HARM is no longer feasible. AirPowerAustralia rightly says it is “bankrupt.”

Russia is now developing an even more lethal, long-ranged SAM system, the S-500, which will also be a BMD system.

Russia’s Navy has 67 submarines of all kinds, including 24 nuclear-powered attack subs, 9 nuclear-powered cruise missile submarines, 14 ballistic missile subs (with a collective capacity to launch 224 SLBMs with 2240 warheads), and 31 conventional attack subs, mostly a growing fleet of Kilo- and Lada-class subs with air-independent propulsion which makes them quieter than most nuclear submarines. Russian nuclear and conventional submarines are quieter than any in the world except those of the Virginia and Seawolf classes. Yet, many American defense cutters want to cut or even stop Virginia class submarine production.

a1997ONIchartonsubmarinenoiselevels

Graph source: Office of Naval Intelligence.

Russia’s destroyers and cruisers, including 4 nuclear-propelled ones, can launch many anti-ship cruise missiles to sink American warships. Arleigh Burke and Ticonderoga class combatants can protect against this threat, yet, under the Obama Administration’s plans, 7 of the youngest Ticonderogas are to be decommissioned prematurely with 20 years of service life remaining.

Russia’s hackers, meanwhile, pose a significant threat to US computer networks, although their attacks have not been as prominent as Chinese hackers’ attacks.

China

China, a nascent superpower, poses a military threat no smaller than Russia.

While pro-disarmament organizations (which have an incentive to lowball China’s nuclear arsenal and thus lie) and US intelligence agencies lead by pro-China bureaucrats have been vastly understating the size of Beijing’s arsenal, it’s real size is at least 1,800 warheads (as estimated by retired Russian general Viktor Yesin, who maintains close ties to the Kremlin), and up to 3,000 warheads, as estimated by Professor Philip Karber of Georgetown University.

China has:

1) 36 MIRVable DF-5, 30-40 MIRVable DF-31/31A, and an unknown number of MIRVable DF-41 ICBMs. The DF-41 can carry 10 warheads; the DF-31, up to 4; the DF-5 can carry an unknown number, but certainly at least two, since it can also carry a single 5 megaton warhead. Thus, China has at least 67 (and probably many more) ICBMs capable of reaching the US. The figure of 30 DF-31/31A ICBMs comes from 2009; since then, the DF-31 fleet has certainly grown significantly.

2) 72-144 SLBMs deployed on 6 ballistic missile submarines, 5 Jin class boats and one Xia class sub. The old Xia class sub will soon be replaced by a 6th Jin. Each of them can carry 12, and up to 24 (on Jin class boats), SLBMs. The Jins’ missiles can carry 4 warheads each. Since all of them are nuclear-powered, they can sail anywhere. The Jins’ missiles, MIRVable JL-2s, have an 8000 km range, allowing them to target anything on America’s West Coast when positioned just slightly east of 150E longitude. They can target Seattle and NB Kitsap while still being west of Hokkaido.

3) 440 nuclear-capable H-6K, JH-7, and Q-5 bombers, with 1 warhead each. The turbofan-powered H-6K and JH-7 can also carry nuclear- and conventional-armed cruise missiles with multiple-thousand-kilometer range.

4) 20-40 MIRVable DF-3 and 80 DF-21 MRBMs, as well as 20 MIRVable DF-4 IRBMs with a 7,000 km range. This allows them to target Hawaii and all targets throughout Asia, but (excepting the DF-4) not Guam or Australia.

5) A large number of DF-11, DF-15, and DF-16 SRBMs (with 1,600 stationed opposite Taiwan) and DH-10 cruise missiles. whose range is 4000 kms. Some of them may be nuclear-armed.

In total, China has 1,800 nuclear warheads according to former Russian strategic missile force chief of staff Gen. Viktor Yesin. China, of course, has the means to deliver far more than 1,800 warheads.

The Chinese Air Force has the following modern fighters: 200 J-10s, 76 Su-27s, 76 Su-30MKKs, 140 J-11s, and 360 modernized J-8II interceptors produced in the 1980s. Yet, GlobalSecurity.org says China plans to order hundreds more Flankers, and AirPowerAustralia projects that by 2015 China will have 550 Flankers. Beijing is also in talks to buy Su-35 and Su-33 fighters from Russia. Flankers are, of course, nuclear-capable.

China is now developing three new fighters. The first, the J-15, will be a modern Flanker variant intended to operate from China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning (on which it has already performed takeoffs and landings). The second, J-20, first flown in January 2011, will be a stealthy 5th generation air superiority fighter, long range interceptor, and theater strike jet which can also serve as a reconnaissance and ASAT weapon launching plane. The third, J-31, will be a smaller, more agile stealthy air superiority fighter capable of operating from land bases and aircraft carriers alike. The J-20 is to enter service in 2017-2019, and the J-31 in 2020 or later.

The J-20 and J-31 are also sure to be exported; China’s J-10, J-11, and JF-17 are also on offer for export.

The venerable F-15 can barely hold parity against China’s Flankers and J-10,, as it flies much faster and much higher but is outclassed in terms of radar and airframe age, and barely holds parity in agility, with similar T/W and wing loading ratios as these Chinese fighters. Even the F-15, however, will be outclassed against the J-20 and J-31.

The J-20, analyzed here, here, and here by APA, will be the best air superiority fighter in the world, ex aequo with the F-22, when it enters service. Its T/W and wing loading ratios are better than anyone else’s except the F-22s and the PAKFAs (as well as the Typhoon’s and the Rafale’s in terms of wing loading); its stealth shaping is far better than the F-35’s or the PAKFA’s, emulating F-22 design closely; and with lots of internal space, it can carry much fuel and ammo. Its size and design allow it to be both a fighter and a medium range strike jet, holding all American bases in East Asia (but not Guam) vulnerable. It could also be developed into an electronic warfare, anti-satellite warfare, and reconnaissance plane (if specialized variants are built), just like the F-111 was. (The J-20’s size is similar to that of the F-111.) Being very stealthy, the J-20 will be very difficult for S/X/K/Ku-band, and even for L-band and UHF/VHF, radars to detect.

The J-31 is an upgraded replica of the F-35, and can take off from land bases and carriers alike (it has a double wheel in the frontal section, like all other carrier-based planes). As China’s AVIC company has declared, it will be exported to anyone capable of paying for it.

China’s air force is also likely to acquire new long-range bombers in the mold of Russia’s Dalnaya Aviatsiya, and with former PLAAF commander Gen. Xu Qiliang (an outspoken advocate of airpower) now serving as Central Military Commission Vice Chairman, i.e. the highest-ranking PLA officer, the PLAAF will have significant leverage to advocate for a more modern bomber fleet, and a spokesman (Gen. Xu) lobbying for it at the top of the CMC. In 2001, China almost acquired a fleet of used Russian Tu-95 and Tu-22M bombers, and the proposal was cancelled only because China’s influential domestic aerospace industry lobbied for modernizations to the Xian H-6 bomber instead and the PLA Navy lobbied for funds for aircraft carriers. Now, with its defense budget several times larger than it was in 2001, China will have more than enough money to acquire intercontinental bombers, especially since Tu-95s and Tu-22Ms will soon become surplus as Russia acquires Su-34 medium-range and PAK DA intercontinental bombers.

China’s navy has 68 submarines, including 6 SSBNs (1 Xia class and 5 Jin class boats). Most of China’s conventional subs are ultra-quiet, AIP-equipped diesel-powered attack submarines which can easily avoid detection. One of them, a Song class sub, stalked the USS Kitty Hawk in 2006 and surfaced just 5 miles away from the carrier, ready to launch torpedoes, while previously completely avoiding detection. Had it not surfaced, the USN would’ve never even known it was there, or that it was so close to the carrier. China’s nuclear submarines are far quieter than their noisy Han- and Xia-class predecessors were, and could circumnavigate the world without having to resurface.

China’s surface fleet is no less powerful. It consists of 14 modern destroyers (plus 5 additional ones under construction, including 2 Type 052C and 3 Type 052D vessels) and 19 modern frigates (with another 7 under construction). Their destroyers include the newest Type 052D Luyang III class of destroyers, the newest Chinese class, equipped with the Zhonghuashendun (AKA Chinese Aegis) combat system. It has 64 Vertical Launch System cells capable of launching SAMs, anti-ship, and anti-submarine missiles, and has a 130mm main gun, as well as smaller guns and CIWS. The armament of other Chinese destroyers is no less formidable. Building so many modern ships so fast has made China a world class shipbuilder, the Diplomat website warns. Chinese destroyers have modern air defense systems: some have navalized versions of the HQ-16/SA-17 Grizzly (Russian Buk) system, others a naval variant of the modern HQ-9 air defense system, and others a naval variant of the S-300, the SA-N-20. Thus, Chinese destroyers can easily shoot down nonstealthy aircraft and missiles. More on China’s newest destroyers here.

On top of that, China has a very large fleet of missile/attack boats and an arsenal of at least 100,000 naval mines. This will pose a serious threat to America’s already-overworked surface combatant and mine countermeasure ship fleets, most of which is deployed in the Persian Gulf.

Which brings me to China’s air defense systems.

Just 12 years ago, China’s air defense network was mostly obsolete, consisting mostly of SA-2 and HQ-2 short-range air defense systems. This has changed. China now has a huge, impressive arsenal of S-300 series (both S-300P and S-300V series) and HQ-9 highly mobile long-range air defense systems whose radars are highly resistant (nearly immune) to jamming and which can detect and shoot down aircraft and missiles (including cruise missiles) from a long range. (Russia, of course, has an even more impressive and more extensive arsenal of S-300 series, S-400 (deployed in 2007), and heavily upgraded legacy Soviet air defense systems like the Buk (SA-11/17 Grizzly)). On ships, China has deployed, as stated above, modern HQ-9 and HQ-16 air defense systems. With SAM systems like these, China can declare and enforce  no-fly zone over all of Taiwan anytime it wants to. These air defense systems also make China’s (and Russia’s) airspace firmly closed to all nonstealthy aircraft, leaving only the B-2, the F-22, the F-35, and the planned Next Generation Bomber as the only aircraft which can enter that airspace safely and survive in it. Their long range air defense systems can defend themselves against anti-SAM missiles like the AGM-88 HARM and against cruise missiles, and to aid in such defense, they’re protected by short-range air defense systems such as the KS-1. These systems’ radar is also highly resistant to jamming.

China’s anti-ship and anti-land conventional missiles are no less deadly. The deadliest are arguably the ChangJian-10 (CJ-10) and the DongHai-10 (DH-1o) land attack cruise missiles, which have a range of 4,000 kms, i.e. enough to reach Guam. An aircraft-carried variant has a range of 2,000 kms. The HongNiao-3 has a range of 2,000 kms. Their anti-ship missiles have ranges varying up to 550 kms, but they can be launched from various platforms, including ships and aircraft. China also has the DF-21D ASBM with a range of 2,700 kms.

While the Danger Room’s claim that China’s plan to beat the US is “missiles, missiles, and missiles” is a huge exaggeration, missiles comprise a large, deadly, and cheap part of China’s arsenal, and if used against anyone, would devastate the victim due to payload, range, accuracy (low CEPs for modern missiles), and speed. If scheduled defense cuts, including sequestration and Obama’s planned nuclear arsenal cuts, continue, China and Russia will both individually overtake the US militarily in all capabilities and in total military power by no later than the early 2020s, and probably earlier.

North Korea

North Korea is not a global peer competitor to the US. However, on a regional scale, it is a huge military threat.

It maintains a large, though mostly outdated, conventional force. But its real strength is its ballistic missile force. North Korea has hundreds of SRBMs capable of reaching all targets in South Korea and Western Japan, and further hundreds of MRBMs with enough range to reach all of Japan (including Okinawa). It also has an unknown number (probably dozens) of Musudan (BM25, AKA Taepodong-X) and Taepodong-1 IRBMs with a range of 4,000 kms (enough to reach targets as far as Singapore) and has now demonstrated an ICBM capability with its Unha-3 missile that successfully delivered a satellite to the Earth’s orbit. This demonstrates that North Korea has overcome the tech hurdles that contributed to the failures of its previous ICBM tests. North Korea now has a capability to deliver nuclear warheads to the US if it has managed to miniaturize them, and there’s no reason to believe it hasn’t. William C. Triplett warns that it’s a matter of one year before it happens.

Besides its small nuclear arsenal (13 warheads), Pyongyang also has 2,000-2,500 metric tons of chemical weapons and quite possibly biological weapons as well. To deliver chemical munitions, it has ballistic missiles as well as a large artillery fleet aimed at South Korea.

Meanwhile, North Korea’s suicide midget submarines pose a threat to ships, while its air defense systems – not as modern as Russia’s or China’s, but nonetheless long-ranged and jamming-resistant – can shoot down any nonstealthy aircraft. Thus, its airspace, like that of Russia  and China, is firmly closed to any nonstealthy aircraft. Only B-2s and F-22s can safely operate in it.

Iran

Iran’s most powerful weapons are its ballistic missiles. The most numerous in its inventory are Fateh-110, Zelzal, Scud, Hwasong, and Shahab-1 and -2 SRBMs, with a range not exceeding 1,000 kms. Because Middle Eastern states are so close to each other, ballistic missile flight times in that region are measured in single minutes. Iran’s SRBMs could thus be used as first strike weapons.

Iran also has a number of MRBMs of various types (Sejjil, Ashoura, Shahab-3) with ranges between 2,000 and 2,500 kms, i.e. enough to reach all of Eastern and Southern Europe.

According to one leaked US State Department cable published by Wikileaks, Iran also has bought 19 Taepodong-X (BM25 Musudan) IRBMs (which have a range of 4,000 kms) from North Korea. If that is true – and it likely is – Iran already has the means to target all of Europe, including Dublin, Lisbon, and Madrid.

Iran’s nuclear weapons programme is accelerating. It is now installing additional centrifuges which will allow it to 1) produce more enriched uranium faster; and 2) enrich enough uranium to weapons-grade (i.e. to 90%) by next summer. This would mean Iran would, by next summer, have enough highly-enriched uranium for a single nuclear warhead (although it would then still have to build a miniaturized warhead to be able to mate it with a ballistic missile).

The most hotly disputed issue is that of an Iranian ICBM program. Disarmament advocates and missile defense opponents falsely claim that Iran will not have an ICBM capable of reaching the US for many years to come and that an East Coast missile defense site is unneeded. They’re wrong, however. The US intelligence community has consistently projected that Iran will attain such capability by 2015 (although that does not mean testing such a missile). While the CRS says Iran is “unlikely” to reach such capability by 2015 without significant foreign assistance, such assistance is likely to be provided by China and/or North Korea, both of whom are notorious proliferators of ballistic missile technology. Furthermore, the year 2015 is just 2 years and 15 days away. The year 2017 is just 4 years and 15 days away. Even if Iran’s ICBM development slips by a year or two, this still leaves the US little time to build an EC missile defense site – which means the decision to build it must be made now.

Also, according to experts such as Gordon Chang and lawmakers such as Sen. Schumer, Iran IS actually being heavily aided in its long range missile development effort by China. Chang says that China has even sold Iran a DF-31 ICBM.

What about America’s defense capabilities? Can’t we protect America with what we already have?

The answer is no, we can’t. Here’s why.

The only aircraft in the US military’s entire fleet capable of surviving in contested airspace are 180 F-22 fighters and 20 B-2 bombers. Because in-theater bases would likely be attacked with missiles by China, North Korea, or Iran, that leaves the US with only 20 aircraft (B-2s) that can strike from over the horizon AND survive in enemy airspace. B-52 and B-1 bombers and F-15, F-16, and F/A-18 aircraft have huge radar signatures and would be extremely easy for enemy air defense systems to shoot down.

The USN has shrunk dramatically over the last 20 years, from almost 600 ships in 1989 and over 300 in the 1990s to just 287 today. The Navy has only 10 carriers, 33% fewer than at the Cold War’s end (15). With so few ships and so many missions and commitments, the Navy can meet only 59% of Combatant Commanders’ requests for ships and only 61% of their requests for submarines. The DOD now wants to scrap 7 among the Navy’s youngest Ticonderoga class cruisers, which means giving up more firepower than that provided by the UK’s entire surface combatant fleet. The world hasn’t shrunk at all since 1991, and neither have America’s commitments and missions – in fact, the world has become more dangerous and more missions have arisen – yet, the Navy’s ship fleet has shrunk by more than half.

theconsequencesofdefensecuts

The USN has only 29 amphibious ships, meaning it cannot transport more than one Marine Brigade into a theater with its supplies.

As a result of underfunding the Navy, even without sequestration or any other further defense cuts, the USN’s surface combatant and submarine fleets will decline precipitously over the next 2 decades.

America’s ASW capability has declined dramatically over the last 2 decades, primarily because the GWOT misled politicians and bureaucrats into thinking that capabilities not needed to fight terrorists were not needed at all. Consequently, ASW capabilities were underfunded, and now, the USN can’t detect Chinese Song class submarines.

America’s entire nuclear deterrent is overdue for a wholesale modernization, yet disarmament advocates, now falsely posing as fiscal conservatives, are clamoring for that effort to be dramatically reduced or even cancelled. This would cause the nuclear deterrent to wear out completely through atrophy even without any new cuts. The fact is that America needs to replace all three legs of its nuclear triad – ICBMs, bombers, and submarines – and doing so would cost very little. A single ICBM costs only $70 mn; a single Next Gen Bomber will cost only $440-$550 mn; and a single new SSBN would cost only $2.4 bn if derived from the Virginia class of attack submarines. The US also needs to modernize its warheads (starting with the B61 tactical warhead providing a nuclear umbrella to America’s allies, such as Poland and the Czech Republic, threatened by Russia’s huge tactical nuclear arsenal and its repeated, frequent threats to use nuclear weapons preemptively against them). The facilities which design, produce, and maintain America’s nuclear warheads also need to be modernized or replaced. The current facilities date back to the Manhattan Project’s days.  Yet, disarmament activists want America to forego any such modernization.

Therefore, any further deep defense cuts – whether by sequestration” or in a “targeted”/”strategic” manner, will gut the US military and pave the way for both China and Russia to become militarily superior to the US, in all aspects, by no later than the early 2020s, and probably earlier than that. And this is not an exaggeration.

If further deep defense cuts are made, 10 years from now, I will be proven right.

Posted in Military issues, World affairs | 2 Comments »

The coming decline and fall of America

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on December 28, 2012


In 1897, as the United Kingdom celebrated the Diamond Jubilee of Queen Victoria’s reign, it stood at the peak of its military, economic, and diplomatic power, as it spanned one quarter of the world and was being patrolled by the Royal Navy, stronger than the next two navies combined. Even then, however, a young American boy predicted that the US would eventually replace the UK as the world’s top dog. And it eventually did, in 1945, as Britain, bankrupt and weakened, had to dismantle its empire.

In 2007, Fareed Zakaria predicted that “history will happen to us after all.” By that, he meant that the US would eventually be replaced as the world’s top dog by someone else, as all previous leading superpowers once were.

And that is about to happen sooner than almost any American realizes.

Sooner than you probably think.

This year, despite reports of economic growth cooling down, China will likey post, again, a 9% economic growth rate, just like last year. It has recently announced tax cuts to stimulate further economic growth. Its Communist Party has recently chosen two reformers, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, to be the number one and number two on the party’s Politburo Standing Committee (its top power organ). It has convinced countries of the Pacific Rim to join a trade bloc that excludes the US, rather than joining a proposed American-led trading block – the Trans-Pacific Partnership – that would exclude China. Its currency, the Renminbi, is increasingly replacing the dollar as the reserve currency of East Asia. China is also becoming an increasingly important export market for Asian countries, while the importance of the US market is decreasing.

China is also building new and new advanced branches of industry that it once didn’t have – like the airliner industry – which will compete with Boeing and Airbus.

China’s economic policy of mercantilism – minimizing imports and maximizing exports – has proven itself to be remarkably successful. China has managed to protect its economy. Its industries, industrial production, and exports are growing. America’s industrial base is disappearing.

Militarily, China has been even more successful. It now has at least 1,800, and up to 3,000, nuclear warheads and the means to deliver over 1,200 of them immediately without involving its SRBMs or GLCMs. It has a growing, and increasingly modern, Navy which now includes an aircraft carrier, 68 submarines (ballistic and attack submarines alike, nuclear and conventional), very modern destroyers with highly capable air defense systems, very modern frigates, and hundreds of attack boats. It has an increasingly modern Air Force with a growing fleet (over 400) of Su-27, Su-30MKK, J-11, and J-10 fighters, soon to be joined by 48 Su-35s and, starting in 2017-2019, by J-20 and J-31 stealthy fighters, as well as AWACS and tankers. When its J-20 fighter enters service in 2017-2019, it will render every Western fighter except the F-22 obsolete, impotent, irrelevant, and useless. Already the Flanker family has rendered every fighter on the planet except the F-22, the F-15C/D, and the Typhoon obsolete.

Most worrisomely, China has built up such a huge and diverse arsenal of anti-access/area-denial weapons which can deny the US military access to a combat theater and, should the US military attempt access, inflict high casualties on it. These weapons range from land attack and anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles to submarines to naval mines to cyberweapons to anti-satellite weapons.

The US, for decades the world’s top military and economic dog, is now being increasingly outmatched by China. And, as America’s military and economic power declines precipitously, and that of China grows exponentially, Beijing looks like a far more attractive partner than Washington, thus affecting the two countries’ diplomatic attractiveness and capabilities.

What are the causes that are leading to America’s decline and eventual downfall and to China’s rise to top dog status?

Firstly, the US is indulging in statist, almost socialist, eocnomic policies – nationalizations, bailouts, high taxes, high government spending, massive overregulation and overlitigation, and a hugely complex, 66,000-page tax code.

Secondly, massive defense cuts which – with or without sequestration – will dramatically weaken the US military and render it decisively inferior to the Chinese and Russian militaries by no later than the 2020s.

Thirdly, a political system and a culture which allow subversive, anti-American views and policies to be tolerated, openly proclaimed, and even implemented as a national policy.

Fourthly, a political system and a weak legal system which allows foreign lobbyists to hugely influence US foreign policy.

Fifth, weak, timid pro-appeasement politicians in both parties who prefer a foreign policy of appeasement to Ronald Reagan’s firm policy.

Sixth, a complete ignorance on the part of both the populace and the political class.

And seventh, a complete breakdown of the American work ethic. Until the 1960s, the vast majority of Americans believed and knew that they had to earn everything they had. “Welfare” as we think of it was a tiny program operated by your city or county government and reserved only for the truly needy. Welfare was not the American way of life. Today, a majority of Americans are dependent on the federal government, one way or another, for their livelihoods, and believe that they are owed a living by someone else. Most of them believe they are entitled to a living at someone else’s expense. The “takers” have already outnumbered the “takers”, as evidenced by Obama’s reelection. The federal government provides a huge cornucopia of benefits – from Head Start and free K-12 education to Medicaid and foodstamps – to over 40%, and perhaps over 50%, of Americans. Meanwhile, 47% of Americans pay no taxes to pay for the cornucopia of benefits they enjoy.

As a wise man once warned, the Republic will collapse when citizens start believing they can vote themselves money.

Meanwhile, China has none of those weaknesses. Its free market economy encourages entrepreneurs to build and expand businesses. Its corporate income tax rate is 25%, it has no capital gains or dividends tax, labor costs are low, and regulations are less restrictive than in the US. Environmental and labor laws are among the most lax in the world.

The Chinese military, as noted above and as documented extensively on this website, is becoming stronger every year, with new, more deadly weapons entering service with the PLA in ever greater numbers.

China’s diplomatic influence around the world, as a result, is growing.

Chinese kids are the best students in the world, as proven time after time by PISA tests, which rank Shanghai students first in the world in reading, maths, and science. Chinese elementary school students have more homework to do every week than American students have ever had. China has high educational standards and strictly enforces them.

China’s political system, while cruel and unjust, ensures that seven men on the Politburo Standing Committee can make decisions easily and, once these decisions are made, they are strictly enforced. There is no political gridlock or logjam in China, and the country doesn’t have a dysfunctional political system like the US has, whereby the Congress can’t even pass any budget for over 3 years and cannot reduce annual federal spending by more than a smidgen by means other than automatic across-the-board sequestration.

And in China, anti-Chinese views and policies, such as those blaming China for the world’s problems or calls for deep cuts in China’s military, are not tolerated. And the people who propagate such beliefs are rightly treated as traitors and scum, not tolerated or celebrated like POGO, TCS, ACA, the “Council for a Livable World”, Ron Paul, Rand Paul, and Barack Obama are in the US.

For these and other reasons, China’s military and economic power is growing, while America’s is shrinking precipitously. And absent reforms that are highly unlikely to be implemented in the US, China will overtake the US as the world’s top dog – economically and militarily – by no later than the 2020s.

And no one will be sadder to see that happen than me.

“In terms of the indices of overall power – GDP, population size, military spending and technological investment – Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined,” the report concludes.

“Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” — prepared by the office of the National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence — projects that the “unipolar” world that emerged after the fall of the Soviet Union will not continue.

“With the rapid rise of other countries, the ‘unipolar moment’ is over and no country – whether the U.S., China, or any other country – will be a hegemonic power,” the report argues.

“The United States’ relative economic decline vis-a-vis the rising states is inevitable and already occurring,but its future role in the international system is much harder to assess,” it argues.

“Global Trends” projects that the United States will retain a unique role in the international system — in part because of its history and past leadership.

“The U.S. most likely will remain ‘first among equals’ among the other great powers, due to the legacy of its leadership role in the world and the dominant role it has played in international politics across the board in both hard and soft power,” it argues.

And the intelligence community does believe the United States will be supplanted as the world’s only superpower by another country.

“The replacement of the United States by another global power and erection of a new international order seems the least likely outcome in this time period,” the report projects.

The report argues that rising powers like China, India and Brazil are not unified by any common ideology and are more focused on their regional role. And the report warns against the consequences of a U.S. withdrawal from the world’s stage.

“A collapse or sudden retreat of US power would most likely result in an extended period of global anarchy,” it argues.” – http://michellefields.com/2012/12/10/intelligence-community-u-s-will-no-longer-be-sole-superpower-by-2030/; http://pl.scribd.com/doc/115962650/GlobalTrends-2030

Posted in Economic affairs, Ideologies, Military issues, World affairs | Leave a Comment »

Republicans must block Kerry and Hagel

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on December 27, 2012


All media outlets are reporting that, because Susan Rice has withdrawn her name from consideration, John Kerry is virtually certain to be nominated Secretary of State and RINO ex-Senator Chuck Hagel is likely to be nominated Secretary of Defense; and that Republicans will not oppose either nomination.

This would be a huge mistake and a heinous betrayal of conservative principles and grassroots conservatives. Here’s why.

Both of them are extreme, strident liberals. Both of them are on the extreme left of America’s political spectrum. John Kerry has, throughout his entire Senate career, supported deep defense cuts (including the cancellation of all crucial weapon programs from the F-15 Eagle to the B-2 bomber to the AH-64 attack helicopter) and the appeasement of America’s enemies. Listen to what his fellow Democrat Zell Miller has said about him. Hagel has supported the same policies, and to this day, he supports deep defense cuts; in fact, experts are worried that if nominated and confirmed, Hagel will propose and implement deep cuts that will make America unable to defend itself and its allies. More here.

Hagel and Kerry also support deep, unilateral cuts in America’s nuclear arsenal and its eventual elimination; Hagel even sits on the board of a pacifist organization called Global Zero which supports such disastrous policies.

Hagel also supports unconditional talks with all of America’s enemies, including Iran; has opposed sanctions against Tehran, including listing the Islamic Revolution Guards’ Corps as a terrorist organization; endorsed Obama enthusiastically for President in 2008 and 2012; and opposes any vigorous action against America’s enemies, including Iran, including a bombing of Iran to stop its nuclear weapons programme. The only policies he supports are appeasement of America’s enemies.

He also has a huge conflict of interest – he serves on the board of Deutsche Bank, which cooperates closely with Iran’s government and does a lot of business in that country.

Last but not least, Hagel is a strident, dangerous enemy of Israel. He has repeatedly voted against resolutions condemning Israel’s enemies, has repeatedly refused to sign letters urging the executive branch to stand with Israel, has overtly made insulting comments about a “Jewish lobby” having a stranglehold on the Congress; has opposed sanctions against Israel’s enemies (such as Iran); and is supported by notorious Israel critics such as Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer.

So he holds  extremely leftist, unacceptable views on the whole range of defense and foreign policy issues; he has a massive conflict of interest with Iran; and he’s been an enthusiastic Obama supporter since 2008.

And yet, Republicans plan to vote to confirm him?

If Republicans do so, it will be a huge betrayal of conservatives and conservative principles, and will pave the way for much deeper, disastrous defense cuts. This will be disastrous for America, the GOP, and conservatives.

Moreover, as the FPI points out, if Republicans, after forcing Susan Rice to withdraw her name from consideration, swoon over Kerry and Hagel and vote to confirm them, it will only lead ordinary Americans to think that Republicans are an anti-woman, anti-black party which opposed a black woman only to vote for two stridently liberal white men.

And Rice’s mistaken comments were a tiny infraction compared to the mistakes and extremely liberal views of Chuck Hagel and John Kerry.

Shame on Republicans if they don’t block the confirmation of Hagel and Kerry.

Dear Readers, please call your Congressman and both of your Senators and tell them that you will never vote for them again if they vote to confirm Hagel or Kerry.

Posted in Military issues, Politicians, World affairs | Leave a Comment »

Evaluating the PAKFA

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on December 26, 2012


AirPowerAustralia, the most authoritative source of information on military aircraft and air defense systems, has recently released an excellent analysis of the Russian 5th generation stealth fighter PAKFA (Prospektivnoi Aviatsonnyi Kompleks Frontovoi Aviatsii), also known as the T-50, by two respected scientists, Dr Carlo Kopp and Dr Michael Pelosi. Their analysis, while omitting a few key weaknesses of the PAKFA, nonetheless demonstrates that this Russian fighter, scheduled to enter service in 2016, is superior to every Western fighter but the F-22 Raptor.

APA’s analysis focused on the T-50’s airframe design and specifically, its stealthiness (i.e. Very Low Observability). In other words, APA analysts wanted to determine how stealthy the PAKFA is/will be. To do that, they first looked carefully at the PAKFA’s shape, looking at each section of the fuselage and assessing whether it would render a strong or a weak radar return. They then used photos and publicly-known dimensions of the PAKFA and used it in a model whereby the PAKFA was tested against radars of various bands.

The result? The PAKFA will be very stealthy in most radar bands, from the S down to the L band, although not stealthy against UHF radars such as the E-2 Hawkeye’s APS-145 and the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye’s APY-9 or the UHF-ground based radars used by some Chinese air defense systems. Thus, penetrating Chinese airspace will be problematic if UHF radars are encountered: they will send 1-2 meter radar waves which will easily detect the PAKFA. Such radar waves would be way too small to detect a large stealthy aircraft such as the B-2 bomber or the USAF’s planned Next Generation Bomber, but sufficient to detect much smaller aircraft such as fighters. That includes the PAKFA.[1]

Similarly, E-2 aircraft of all variants will have no problem detecting the PAKFA. The problem is that the PAKFA (or other Russian fighters) will likely use Novator “AWACS-killer” A2A missiles to kill the Hawkeye and thus strip the opponent of the ability to detect the PAKFA.

In all  higher radar bands, however, from the S to the L-band, the PAKFA will be highly stealthy, thanks to its shaping, but with the following two exceptions:

1) The PAKFA’s conventional engine nozzles are not stealthy and would thus produce a large radar wave return. This is a problem the PAKFA shares with the F-35, but it can be solved by producing slit engine nozzles, as Lockheed Martin did for the F-22.

2) The PAKFA’s beam fuselage component is deeply sculpted and therefore not stealthy. To quote APA:

8. Where the PAK-FA falls well short of the F-22A and YF-23 is the shaping design of the lower fuselage and side fuselage, where the general configuration, wing/fuselage join angles, and inlet/engine nacelle join angles introduce similar intractable specular return problems as observed with the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter design. These are inherent in the current shaping design and cannot be significantly improved by materials application. …. the PAK-FA prototype design will produce a large specular return in any manoeuvre where the lower fuselage is exposed to a threat emitter, and this problem will be prominent from the Ku-band down to the L-band.

9. This problem is exacerbated by the inboard ventral wing root fairings, claimed by some Russian sources to be pods for the concealed carriage of folding fin close combat AAMs, such as the RVV-MD/R-74 series. While these fairings do not introduce large RCS contributions from fore or aft aspects, they will adversely contribute to beam aspect RCS, especially for threats well below the plane of flight of the aircraft.

10. The tailboom shaping is reminiscent of the F-22 and F-35 designs, and will not yield significant RCS contributions from the front or aft aspects.

11. In the lower hemisphere, it will suffer penalties due to the insufficiently obtuse join angles between the wings and stabilators, and outer engine nacelles.

The PAKFA also has a few other weaknesses which APA has not mentioned in any of its analyses of this fighter to this day.

Firstly, despite APA’s claims to the contrary, the PAKFA, like the F-35, can carry only 4 A2A missiles internally, while the F-22 can carry eight (i.e. twice as much). Thus, in any A2A combat, the F-22 gets four freebie shots at the PAKFA, and given that the Pk of any missile will never be 100%, this can be compensated only with a large missile load. By virtue of carrying twice as many missiles as the PAKFA, the F-22  stands a twice higher chance of killing the Russian fighter than of being shot down by it.

Secondly, the Irbis-E radar with which the PAKFA will likely be equipped is inferior to the F-22’s APG-77 radar.

Thirdly, despite APA’s claims to the contrary, the PAKFA has a WORSE thrust/weight ratio and a WORSE wing loading ratio than the F-22. At 50% fuel plus a full internal missile load, the PAKFA has a T/W ratio of 1.19:1 and a wing loading ratio of between 330-470 kg/sq m, more likely closer to the higher than to the lower figure, while the F-22 has a T/W ratio of 1.26:1 and a wing loading ratio of 375 kg/sq m.

So, by 2016, the Russians will be flying an aircraft that will still be inferior in terms of aerodynamic and kinematic performance, radar, and especially missile load, to the F-22, and which, absent significant redesign, will not be stealthy at all if viewed from below or from the rear.

It will be produced in much greater numbers than the F-22, however. The RuAF alone plans to procure at least 200 of these fighters and may buy more than that. Exports outside India will likely also go into the hundreds, as was the case with previous commercially successful fighters such as the Flanker family and the MiG-29 Fulcrum.

The premature closure of the F-22 production line this year, and political opposition to its reopening, mean that the only fighters capable of defeating the PAKFA that the US will have at its disposal will be its 180 or so F-22 Raptors.

That portends trouble for the US and indeed the entire West, because, as analysis by APA and by myself has concluded, the ONLY Western (not just American – Western) fighter capable of defeating the PAKFA is the F-22 Raptor.

No other Western fighter stands even a ghost’s chance of defeating this Russian fighter. Not the F-35, not the Super Bug, not other legacy aircraft, and not the Eurocanards.

The F-35’s radar signature will be, at best, the same as the PAKFA’s, its internal weapons load (4 A2A missiles) is the same as the PAKFA’s, while its combat radius, persistence, aerodynamic, and kinematic performance are all decisively inferior to that of the PAKFA, not to mention the fact that a single round from the PAKFA’s GSh-301 gun to the F-35’s single engine would bring it down.

So, while the F-35 might be a good competitor for the PAKFA in BVR combat (although even that is doubtful given its inferior speed and combat ceiling), it stands no chance of competing in WVR combat.

The Super Bug and the F-16 are decisively inferior in both combat regimes, and owing to their huge radar signatures, would be shot down by the PAKFA (or other Russian fighters) long before they could begin the WVR game.

The Eurocanards could, in theory, compete with the PAKFA in WVR combat, thanks to their very low wingloading ratios, good T/W ratios, and low weight, but even with jammers, they would be easily detected and shot down long before they could begin the WVR game with the Russian fighter, as their radar signatures are huge even in a “clean” configuration, and even more so with external stores. Jamming can only reduce the distance from which they can be detected, not prevent detection entirely. Once they’re detected, they’re toast.

Finally, an advantage the PAKFA will have over everyone except the F-15, and perhaps the Typhoon and the Rafale, will be to run the opponent out of gas.

In sum, the PAKFA renders every Western fighter other than the F-22 Raptor impotent, irrelevant, obsolete, and useless, in a fashion no different than the one in which the HMS Dreadnought rendered all previous battleships obsolete when she was commissioned in 1906.  When it enters service, it will irrevocably and mercilessly enforce the end of their service lives. Despite the false claims of Robert Gates, Harry Reid, John McCain, POGO, and the CATO Institute, the F-22 was needed in 2009 and is even moreso needed now, as it is the only Western fighter capable of defeating the PAKFA.

The material reality is simple. The US will either resume F-22 production or it will lose air superiority sooner rather than later, with all the military, diplomatic, and economic consequences following from that. And then, America will get a rude awakening, just like it did 71 years ago.

[1] Even the most advanced counter-stealth radar in the world, the Nebo SVU, can send radar waves no longer than 2 meters, which is not even close to being enough to detect large stealthy aircraft like bombers. To detect them, the radar waves would have to be at least 5-6 times longer, but radars emitting such huge waves would be extremely and prohibitively costly.

Posted in Military issues, World affairs | Leave a Comment »

A very sad Christmas for us defense conservatives

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on December 25, 2012


This year, while we defense conservatives, like most people, will be celebrating Christmas and will try to find joy in it, we will nonetheless be sad, because America’s defense is now in the process of being gutted quite literally through massive cuts in budgets, nuclear and conventional weapon inventories, modernization programs, and the force structure.

It will be the fourth sad Christmas in a row for us in the last four years.

In 2009, the Congress, after initial resistance displayed by the HASC, the SASC, the SAC, and the full House, capitulated to the White House (including its veto threats) and agreed to implement the disastrous modernization program killings demanded by Defense Secretary Robert Gates (one of the worst SECDEFs in American history). The consequence was the killing of many crucial modernization programs, such as the F-22 fighter (the best fighter in the world and the only one capable of defeating the latest Chinese and Russian designs), the Multiple Kill Vehicle for missile interceptors (which would’ve enabled them to intercept multiple missiles and multiple warheads, or warheads and decoys, simoultaneously), the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (a ground-based boost-phase interceptor), the DDG-1000 Zumwalt class, the CSAR-X rescue helicopter, the AC-X gunship, and many others.

Yet, those programmatic closures, as dumb as they were (individually and collectively) were just a sign of the wholesale gutting of America’s defense that was to come.

In 2010, it was followed by more programmatic closures as well as the ratification of the New START treaty, which obliges only the US (not Russia) to cut its nuclear arsenal by 1/3. This treaty is undermining nuclear deterrence while containing multiple loopholes which Russia is mercilessly exploiting, not counting Tu-22M bombers as strategic bombers subject to its ceilings, and having a pathetically weak verification regime. In 2010, many conservatives, including myself, and many nuclear weapons and arms control experts, including former Assistant State Secretary for AC John R. Bolton, urged the Senate not to ratify this treaty. Sadly, in the 2010 lame duck session, just 2 days before Christmas, the Senate, including 13 liberal Republicans, voted to ratify this destructive, treasonous treaty.

While the negotiations on ratification conditions were ongoing between GOP Senators and the White House, Obama dishonestly promised to invest seriously in the modernization of the arsenal that would be left. At the time, I urged Senators not to believe Obama’s false promises, which, as I warned, were not worth a rat’s rear end. Sadly, 13 Republican Senators were duped by Obama’s useless promises – which he broke no sooner than the ink had dried in the ratification documents. (However, Republicans at least ensured that the New START ratification resolution passed by the Senate contains a firm legal obligation to modernize all three legs of the triad as well as the warheads and the related facilities, including construction of the CMRR and the UPF.)

So, after this betrayal by 13 Republican Senators, the Christmas of 2010 was a very sad one for us defense conservatives.

In 2011, Republicans, after agreeing to Sec. Gates’ $178 efficiencies initiative, foolishly agreed to $487 bn in further, immediate cuts to defense spending (which are real term cuts, not mere growth rate reductions as is often claimed) and to sequestration – a $600 bn per decade gun put at the head of the Defense Secretary – whose intent was to force the Super Committee (formed per the provisions of the Budget Control Act with the aim to find an additional $1.2 trillion in savings) to do its job of finding the required savings. Predictably, the deadlocked Super Committee, composed in equal number of partisan Democrats and Republicans, failed to do its job. So, on November 23rd, they announced their failure to come up with any deficit reduction plan, thus triggering the sequester. From then on, it was clear that sequestration would kick in, unless Congress could agree on a replacement.

2011 was a very sad Christmas for us defense conservatives.

When the year 2012 began, we hoped that things would get better: that sequestration would be resolved, that a pro-defense Republican President (Mitt Romney) and a Republican Senate would get elected, and that further damage to America’s defense would be stopped. These hopes were quickly dashed, however. The Congress has proved itself to be completely unable to resolve this (or any other important) issue before or after the November elections, and in those elections, thanks partially to Republicans’ issues with Romney and to third party candidates Gary Johnson and Virgil Goode, Republicans got trounced across the board, losing the presidential and Senate elections (Republicans actually lost two seats on net) and losing a number of seats in the House.

The results produced the same kind of a deadlocked government that has existed since 2009. The same kind of deadlocked government that nearly shut down in April 2011 and nearly caused America to default on its obligations for the first time ever in August 2011.

At the same time, Republicans have tolerated, and continue to tolerate, in their ranks pseudoconservative Congressmen and Senators who support deep defense cuts (indeed, lead campaigns for such cuts), oppose solutions to sequestration, oppose giving American troops what they need, and collaborate with the House’s most strident liberals for that purpose. And yet, Republicans and so-called “conservative” media and groups – such as ConservativeHQ and the American Spectator – hail these Republican traitors as “conservatives”, “conservative heroes”, and “Reagan heroes”.

And now, thanks to these indecisive elections and the deadlocked federal government, and the two parties’ failure to agree on any replacement for sequestration whatsoever, the sequester will kick in on January 2nd and slash defense spending across the board by 10%. Only personnel spending will be exempted. Ironically, that is the largest and fastest growing part of the defense budget, which is eating the rest of the budget alive and crowding out all other parts of it. Without reforms and significant cuts to personnel spending, the US military will, as CSBA’s Todd Harrison warns, some day become unable to carry out even the simplest tasks. Yet, it is the sole part of the budget exempt from sequestration – and the FY2013 NDAA just passed by Congress also prohibits any meaningful reforms to that part.

So this is a very sad Christmas for us defense conservatives – indeed, for all genuine conservatives. Four years of reckless defense cuts are culminating in what will be the deepest cuts to defense spending, inventories, and modernization programs since the 1950s – even deeper than the cuts that followed the end of the Vietnam and Cold Wars. The US military will be completely gutted as a result, with all the military, diplomatic, and economic consequences stemming from that.

A very sad Christmas, indeed.

Posted in Military issues, World affairs | Leave a Comment »

 
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