If Sarah Palin runs… or if she doesn’t run


5 days ago, I wrote a blogpost on whether or not Sarah Palin will run for President or not. I concluded that there’s a 50% chance that she will, which means that it’s as likely that she will run as it is likely that she will not.

Recently, SarahPAC and other sources close to Palin have stated that the former Alaska Governor will not announce her decision on Sep. 3rd, as she was expected to do. This means she will not announce her decision until later, probably until October. Still, Palin cannot delay this announcement forever. There are federal and state legal deadlines that she must comply with if she wants to run (and her diehard supporters tell us that it’s 100% certain that she will run).

5 days ago I listed several arguments that lead to one or another conclusion. Today, I will list possible consequences that will result if she runs or if she doesn’t run.

For Sarah Palin, the consequences will be as follows:

If she runs, she will lose the election badly. Let’s not kid ourselves. I am a Palin supporter myself, but I do recognize the fact that, thanks partially to the MSM, Palin cannot win a presidential election. The latest Rasmussen poll says that Obama, with all his negatives, would still win 50% of the vote against Palin, who would get only 33% of votes against the weakest incumbent since Jimmy Carter.

If she doesn’t run, her diehard supporters will be badly disappointed and will rightfully feel duped. She’s been stringing them along for so long that they will be badly disappointed if she doesn’t run.

For the Republican Party, the consequences would depend on whether she would not run.

If she doesn’t run, then one candidate (most likely Rick Perry or Michele Bachmann) will unite conservative voters, win the primaries, and possibly even defeat Barack Obama.

If she does run, three scenarios are possible:

1) Palin somehow wins the nomination and goes on to lose badly to Barack Obama during the general election. Obama brings the US down, and in 2016, rising stars of the GOP (e.g. Paul Ryan, Allen West, Marco Rubio, Bob McDonnell) run to replace a term-limited, utterly-discredited Obama. But by then it’s already too late: conservative

2) Palin further divides the already-fractured “base” of conservative voters, thus paving the way to the nomination for Romney (who currently badly trails Rick Perry in polls). Grassroots conservative voters stay home on election night or vote for a third party candidate. Obama wins.

3) Palin splits conservatives’ votes (see scenario #2), thus paving the way to the nomination for Romney. Romney manages to convince enough Republican and independent voters to vote for him, wins swing states, wins the election, and then utterly and irreversibly discredits the GOP, as the third RINO president in a row (Bush the Elder was the first and Dubya was the second). He reminds American voters why they voted for an anti-American socialist in 2008, rather than yet another RINO. The GOP is utterly and irreversibly discredited and splits because conservative Republicans form a third party that siphons votes away from the GOP, Perot-style, but fails to win any elections. The Democrats win the 2016 presidential and Congressional elections and establish a permanent majority. John Podesta or Keith Ellison is elected President.

Do you now understand, Dear Reader, that if Sarah Palin runs, she will inevitably harm the GOP and the US?

I don’t know if Sarah Palin will run. I’m not going to guess if she will run or not. But I hope she will not.

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