Prediction: Sarah Palin will not run


Palin will not run for President and there is plenty of evidence that she won’t. She has formed no PAC. She has no campaign organization on the ground in any state (volunteers like those O4P people are not up to the task; they cannot substitute for professionals). She has no campaign staff. She has no fundraising mechanism other than SarahPAC, and funds raised by SarahPAC cannot be used for a presidential campaign. She has not reached out to the GOP’s big donors (whom she would need to win if she were to run). She has not reached out to the key players in IA, NH, and SC (unlike those candidates who are running, e.g. Perry and Bachmann – Bachmann is seeking the imprimatur of Gov. Haley and Rep. Scott, while Perry has PERSONALLY called severa key players in those 3 states).

Moreover, Palin has said she will announce her decision by the end of September. If she were to announce, 25 days from now, that she’s running for President, Roger Ailes would’ve already known about that and would’ve asked for her resignation. Indeed, he asked for Gingrich’s and Santorum’s resignation before they even began running, and when people began to beg Mike Huckabee to run, he ordered Huckabee to choose between his show and the White House.

Palin remains on FN’s payroll and has received no such ultimatum AFAIK.

Palin will not run and doesn’t want to run. She doesn’t want the job of President. She just wants to be famous and to have the whole world pay attention to her.

But as soon as she announces that she’s not running for President, no one will pay any attention to what she says or does. The only reason people do so now is because there’s still a glimmer of hope that she may run for President. As soon as she announces that she’s not running, her speaker fees will dry up, she will be invited to fewer conventions and other speaking assignments, big money will stop flowing to SarahPAC’s coffers, and no one will pay any attention to what she says or does. And she knows about it.

So she will not run, but she will refuse to tell the world her decision for as long as possible.


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