For many months now, pundits and journalists have been speculating about whether or not Sarah Palin, the former half-term Governor of Alaska, will run for President. Her diehard supporters have been saying for months that Palin will definitely run and that they are 100% certain that she will. They even claim that Palin is already “running” and that whoever says otherwise is a Palin hater suffering from what diehard Palin fans call “the Palin Derangement Syndrome”. They say that “until she says “I’m not going to run”, she’s running.” Evidently, her diehard supporters are immune to reason, logic, and facts. Palin herself has stoked this speculation by doing 2 bus tours, making suggestive statements, and refusing to give a definite answer about whether or not she will run. (Now she’s angry that she’s being speculated about as a possible presidential candidate. She can end speculations easily and immediately by saying unequivocally that she’s not running.)
She’s been teasing her fans, stringing them along for too long, building up expectations, and causing journalists to speculate. I do not know whether Palin will run or not, but I believe she will not. After all, while there are a few signs that she may run, there are many pieces of evidence that suggest that she will not run. To reiterate several pieces of evidence that some people pointed to a few weeks ago: She has formed no presidential exploratory committee. She has no campaign organization, whether in the early primary states or in other states. She has no campaign staff. She has no fundraising mechanism other than SarahPAC. Money raised by SarahPAC cannot be transferred to a presidential campaign fund.
She has not reached out to the GOP’s big donors, while Rick Perry has. Big donors are absolutely necessary to win. She has not reached out to important GOP officials and politicians in IA, NH, or SC. When Rick Perry got serious about running for President, he contacted them. Several GOP officials from IA, NH, and SC have stated that Perry himself called them. When Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum began to flirt with the idea of running, Fox News asked for their resignations. When people began to beg Mike Huckabee to run, Huckabee was ordered to choose between his show and the White House. Palin remains on FN’s payroll and, to this day, has received no such ultimatum.
Roger Ailes is not an idiot. If Sarah Palin really planned to run for President, he would’ve known about it and would’ve already asked for her resignation. There is also evidence, in the form of two statements by Palin herself, on whether or not she will run. In IA, during the Iowa State Fair, Palin claimed she hasn’t decided yet, but also said she wants to give her supporters a definite answer “so that they cam jump on board with someone else. And recently, during an interview with CNN, Palin said: “I don’t want to be seen as or perceived as stringing people along, asking supporters, ‘Oh don’t just jump in there on someone else’s bandwagon because I may jump in, so hold off a little bit.’ That is not fair to them. After another month or two goes by, they need to know who it is that they can jump behind. Now more than ever, everybody has got to get involved in this 2012 election. They need to get out there and campaign for their chosen candidates, its all the more reason to hurry up and decide.” Link: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/22/will-palin-be-in-by… If you intend to run, you don’t tell your supporters “they can jump on board with someone else”, or that “they need to know who it is that they can jump behind”, or that “they need to get out there and campaign for their chosen candidates”. You tell that to your supporters if you DON’T intend to run. Just think about it: if a potential canddiate had already decided to run, or was still undecided, would he/she say that his/her supporters “can jump on board with someone else”, or that “they need to know who it is that they can jump behind”, or that “they need to get out there and campaign for their chosen candidates”? Of course not.
By the way, Sarah Palin is unfair to her supporters. She says she doesn’t want to be seen as stringing people along, yet that’s exactly what she’s been doing and continues to do. She continues to string her supporters along and refuses to give a definite answer.
She’s been teasing her supporters for a long time. Her diehard supporters believe that she will definitely run and desperately want her to run. Some of them have even moved halfway across the country to Iowa to build a campaign organization for her.
Palin has painted herself into a corner which she cannot escape unhurt.
If she runs, she will lose the election badly. She might not even win the nomination (a recent DailyCaller poll shows her fifth if she runs, trailing Perry, Romney, Bachmann, and even that old isolationist loon from Texas, and a recent Gallup poll shows her tied for third place with the said isolationist loon), and even if she wins the nomination, she will not win the general election. The most recent Rasmussen poll on the subject shows her trailing Obama by 17 pp, 33% to 50%, while Romney leads Obama, Perry is tied with the Obummer, and Bachmann and Paul trail him only slightly. According to polls, 65% of all Americans say they would never vote for her as a presidential candidate. So Palin can write off 65% of the entire electorate before she even jumps into the race. By 2016, she will not get another chance, because there will either be an incumbent Republican president or a group of rising Republican stars (e.g. Paul Ryan, Bob McDonnell and John Thune) running to replace a term-limited Obama.
If she doesn’t run, she will disappoint her diehard supporters. She’s been teasing these folks for many months. She continues to refuse to give her supporters a definite answer. She has led her supporters to believe she will run. Her diehard supporters believe that she will run and desperately want her to run. If she doesn’t run, her diehard supporters will be badly disappointed and will rightly feel duped. And then, there will be a severe backlash against Palin.
As a former Palin supporter who defended her even against fellow conservatives (as some users of this forum would attest), I can’t honestly say I pity Palin. It’s a problem she made for herself. She could’ve ended these speculations long ago, or at least yesterday, by unequivocally stating whether or not she will run. Instead, with less than 6 months remaining before the first Republican caucus, with less than 15 months remaining before the general election, she continues to tease her supporters and to refuse to give a definite answer. She has no one to blame but herself.