… but I told you so.
Sarah Palin told her supporters in a letter yesterday, and publicly announced (also yesterday) on Mark Levin’s show, that she will not run for President.
Her supporters will be surprised and will be gnashing their teeth. They shouldn’t be.
I warned publicly, here and on C4P, several times that she would not run for President.
On August 18th, I refused to make a prediction yet, but stated the arguments of both sides. Even so, by then I privately believed that she would not run.
On August 23rd, I pointed out that it was extremely unlikely that Palin would run, and also stated why it would be bad for her whether she would run or not, and what would a decision by Palin to run mean for the GOP.
On September 5th, I publicly predicted that Palin would not run for President, for the reasons stated on August 18th and repeated on September 5th.
On September 21st, after C4P changed its tune about Donald Trump by 180 degrees and reported that Trump was waiting for Palin to announce her decision, I told them that he was wasting his time, because Palin would not run:
“There is irrefutable evidence that she will not run.
She has no campaign organization (other than O4P) in any state, no campaign staff, no presidential exploratory committee, and no fundraising mechanism other than SarahPAC. Funds raised by SarahPAC cannot be used for a presidential run.
When Rick Perry got serious about running for President, he contacted the GOP’s heavy donors, who are absolutely necessary to win, and key GOP players in the early primary states. Several Iowan, NH, and SC Republicans have confirmed that Perry has personally called them. Sarah Palin has not done that.
And here’s the biggest piece of evidence that she will not run: she’s still on Fox News’ payroll. When Gingrich and Santorum began to flirt with the idea of running, FN asked for their resignations. When people began to beg Huckabee to run, Huckabee was ordered to choose between his show and the White House. Sarah Palin remains on FN’s payroll and, AFAIK, has received no such ultimatum. Palin has said she will announce her decision by the end of September. The last day of September will be Sep. 30th. That means that 9 days remain before her announcement. If Palin was really to announce 9 days from now that she’s running for President, don’t you think Roger Ailes would’ve known about it by now?
Roger Ailes is not an idiot, so there are only two possibilities: Palin is going to run and is being treated in a privileged way in violation of campaign financing laws, or Palin is not going to run.
That’s the truth if you’re allowing a presidential candidate to be on a TV channel’s payroll and use it, without any fees, to attack (with blatant lies, I might add) her presidential rivals – unless that person is not running and doesn’t intend to run.
Donald Trump needs to accept the fact that Palin will not run for President. Although I don’t really care whom he will endorse. He’s a strident liberal. Anyone who receives his endorsement should refuse to accept it.”
Unfortunately, neither Palin supporters nor Donald Trump listened to me. They continued to delude themselves that Palin would run.
I was right. They were wrong.
So now that I’ve been proven right and that Palin is not running, what does her decision mean for various groups of people? Who will benefit and who will not?
The “beneficiaries” are:
1) Palin’s family members. They will be spared the vile attacks they were subjected to by the media for the last 3 years, now that Palin has announced that she’s not running. She’s no longer a target for the media and the Democrats. Palin’s decision is the right one for them.
2) The Republican Party, including the remaining 9 Republican presidential candidates. Palin will not split conservatives’ votes any further, nor will she be slandering GOP candidates any further (I hope). It will be easier for a conservative candidate to win conservatives’ votes and the nomination without Palin running, and thus prevent Romney from winning the nomination.
3) The country. Palin would’ve been one of the easiest opponents for Obama to beat; nominating her would practically mean giving Obama an iron-cast guarantee of a second presidential term. This will not happen, however. The GOP will likely nominate a much tougher opponent and save the country from the Obama Administration. Obama will likely be a one-term president.
Those who stand to lose as a result of Palin’s decision are:
1) Sarah Palin. Yes, Sarah Palin herself. For Palin, there were no good options; she stood to lose whichever way she would decide. Had she decided to run for President, she would’ve almost certainly been beaten by her primary rivals or by Obama. Now that she’s not running, no one will care what she says or does, as the media will pay attention exclusively to people who are actually running for office (i.e. to actual candidates), and her speaking fees will plummet. She will become totally irrelevant. She can’t run for President in 2016; by then, there will be either an incumbent Republican President or a group of young, rising GOP stars running to replace a term-limited Obama. Worst of all, she will likely face a backlash from her fans. Her diehard supporters, whom she has been stringing along for far too long, who believed she would surely run, who have been telling everyone else that she would certainly run, some of whom moved halfway across the country to Iowa to help her run, will feel badly disappointed and will rightfully feel duped. If they have a brain, they will realize that they have been snookered by a political grifter who was just trying to extend her 15 minutes of fame for as long as possible.
2) Palin’s supporters. See above.
3) President Obama. As stated above, Palin would’ve been the easiest opponent for him to defeat, ex aequo with Michele Bachmann. All Obama would need to do to defeat her would be to air the clips of her interviews with Katie Couric and Charles Gibson and her “blood libel” remark in swing states. But now that Palin isn’t running and Bachmann is in the low single digits in polls, Obama is likely to face a tough election opponent: the supremely electable Mitt Romney (who beats him in polls nationally and in states), the Texas conservative hero Rick Perry, or veteran businessman/job creator Herman Cain of Godfather’s Pizza fame. In other words, unless Republicans nominate a clown like Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, or Jon Huntsman, they will win.