Zbigniew Mazurak's Blog

A blog dedicated to defense issues

Rebuttal of the SNP traitors’ lies about Trident and nukes

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on August 26, 2014


On 18 September, Scotland is set to vote on whether or not to become an independent country. The extremely-leftist, socialist SNP government of Scotland promises that if the result is “yes”, it will force the UK government to remove the UK Royal Navy’s four Vanguard class submarines – and the Trident missiles and nuclear warheads onboard – out of the UK. This, the SNP government hopes, will mean the end of the UK’s own national nuclear deterrent.

To justify its treasonous policy, the Scottish National Party and its fellow pro-unilateral-disarmament activists elsewhere in the UK, make the following, utterly false claims:

1) “Nuclear weapons are immoral and reprehensible; it is immoral and repugnant for the UK to own weapons of such indiscriminate and inhumane destructive power.”

2) “Nuclear weapons are too expensive; renewing the UK’s nuclear deterrent will cost 100 bn pounds.”

3) “Nuclear weapons siphon money away from conventional capabilities and are designed against Cold War era, not 21st century, threats.”

All of these claims are blatant lies, plain and simple. I will now refute them one by one.

 

1) No, it is NOT immoral, reprehensible, nor repugnant in any way for the UK to possess a nuclear deterrent against the deadliest threats that exist in the world – the threat of nuclear blackmail or even a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack by a hostile state (be it Russia, North Korea, or Iran) against the UK or its allies.

As a sovereign state AND a force for good in this world, as a country which has bestowed countless good things and blessings of modernity in this world, and as a responsible stakeholder in the international system and a positive contributor to world security, the UK has every moral and legal right to have a nuclear deterrent.

Possessing a highly powerful deterrent – such as nuclear weapons – is the natural, moral, and legal right of a country that wishes to protect its own citizens and its territory. There is nothing immoral about that.

What IS immoral is to demand that the UK surrender such a deterrent – of the ONLY kind of weapons that can protect Britain against the deadliest security threats in the world.

It is immoral and repugnant to demand that the UK give up its mightiest defence against foreign aggression, including nuclear blackmail and potentially nuclear attacks by Russia, North Korea, and potentially Iran.

It is immoral and repugnant to demand that the UK disarm itself while nobody else outside Barack Obama’s America is doing so – not France, not Russia, not China, not Pakistan and India, not Israel, not North Korea. (North Korea is now developing ballistic missile submarines of its own.)

It is therefore the advocates of the UK’s nuclear disarmament who are morally repugnant. They are traitors to the United Kingdom, and they deserve to be executed for their treason. (And if they are convicted of it, I will volunteer to be the executioner.)

Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal by far, at over 8,000 nuclear warheads, and is building it up. It, along with every other nuclear power in the world excluding the UK and the US, is rapidly modernizing its nuclear arsenal.

As for nuclear weapons’ “inhumane and indiscriminate destructive power” – it is not “inhumane.” EVERY weapon ever developed by man was invented for one purpose only: to kill other people and destroy things. Nuclear weapons are not any more “immoral” than other types of weapons.

And weapons (including nuclear ones) are not, in and of themselves, evil or good, moral or immoral. It all depends on who owns them and what are they intended for.

It is perfectly moral for a decent country like the UK, the US, or France to possess nuclear weapons. It is quite another for a murderous jihadist dictatorship like Iran, which has repeatedly threatened to destroy Israel, or for a murderous and aggressive regime like Putinist Russia, to possess such weapons – or any weapons, for that matter.

 

2) Leftist, pro-unilateral disarmament groups in the UK and the US routinely and grossly overstate the cost of nuclear deterrent modernization in order to mislead the public. Their lies need to be exposed for what they are: blatant lies.

In fact, replacing Trident with a flotilla of four new ballistic missile submarines will cost only about 20+25 bn pounds, i.e 75-80% less than the 100 bn quid the SNP falsely claims. Here’s the detailed data:

“A December 2006 Ministry of Defence white paper recommended that the nuclear weapons should be maintained and outlined measures that would do so until the 2040s. It advocated the currently preferred submarine-based system, as it remained the cheapest and most secure deterrence option available.

Costs for this option are estimated at £15–20 billion based on:

  • £0.25 billion to participate in U.S. Trident D5 missile life extension programme.
  • £11–14 billion for a class of four new SSBNs.
  • £2–3 billion for refurbishing warheads.
  • £2–3 billion for infrastructure.[10]

These 2006/7 prices would equate to about £25bn in out-turn price for the successor submarines; the 2011 Initial Gate report confirmed estimates of £2-3bn each for the warheads and infrastructure.[11] These cost estimates exclude theVanguard 5 year life extension and decommissioning, and it is unclear if new Trident missiles will need to be purchased for the life extension programme.”

Here’s the source.

 

3) As for military utility, that of nuclear weapons is much greater than that of any conventional weapons, no contest.

When it comes to deterring attacks on the UK and its citizens, especially against catastrophic threats such as a nuclear, chemical, biological, ballistic missile, or large-scale conventional attack, the ONLY thing that can prevent such attacks in the first place is a British nuclear deterrent. Nothing else will suffice. No other weapons on the planet have the destructive – and thus deterring – power that nuclear weapons do.

By the SNP’s, and other anti-nuke activists’, own admission, no other weapons have the “indiscriminate and inhumane” destructive power that nuclear weapons possess. Thus, no other weapons can deter potential aggressors from attacking Britain and its citizens with nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons or a large amount of conventional weapons or ballistic missiles.

There is NO alternative to nuclear weapons. NONE.

Why? Because, as even the SNP admits, nuclear weapons have unmatched destructive power – and it is precisely the destructive power of weapons that deters potential aggressors from attacking.

Wannabe aggressors will be deterred from attacking the UK ONLY if they are threatened with an overwhelming, devastating retaliation that would bring about their own end if they attack the UK.

Conventional weapons are way too weak to constitute an effective deterrent against potential aggressors. They completely lack the huge destructive (and thus deterring) power of nuclear weapons.

And protecting the UK and its citizens against large-scale aggression and intimidation should be (and is) the UK Government’s top priority.

The SNP and other anti-nuclear hacks falsely claim that “nuclear weapons will never be used.” We should hope they won’t be – and as long as the UK maintains its own national nuclear deterrent, they will never be.

That’s because nuclear weapons, thanks to their sheer power, DETER potential aggressors from attacking Britain or her allies WITHOUT being used, thus avoiding their actual use. Without firing a single shot or a single missile, Britain thus deters wannabe aggressors from attacking.

And a weapon that PREVENTS war from occuring in the first place – and thus deters aggressors without actually being used – is worth a million times more than a weapon actually used in combat.

It is much better to PREVENT war than to actually fight it.

That is not to say conventional weapons are useless. They are useful and needed for a range of roles and operations, ranging from wars against other states to combat against terrorists. But they cannot ever protect Britain from a large-scale nuclear, chemical, ballistic, or even conventional attack.

Conventional weapons simply lack the sheer destructive power of nuclear weapons to be able to do that.

And the threats I’ve mentioned are far from theoretical. Russia alone possesses over 8,000 nuclear warheads – and the means to deliver them all to the UK, all of Europe, and anywhere in the world. It is still growing its nuclear arsenal and rapidly modernizing it, with scores of new ICBMs and short-range ballistic missiles, a planned fleet of new Borei-class ballistic missile submarines, additional Tu-160 bombers being manufactured, and new bombers and ICBMs under development.

Russia has also developed and tested intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles in violation of the INF Treaty.

Contrary to widespread belief, Russia is growing, not cutting, its nuclear arsenal. The New START treaty, signed by the US and Russia in 2010, obligates only the US, not Russia, to cut its arsenal. Russia is free to grow its own – and is doing so.

Russia is also quite willing to use these weapons against the UK and its allies. It has threatened to use them against European countries (including the UK) and the US on 15 separate occassions since 2007.

It has repeatedly (including recently) flown nuclear-armed bombers within miles of Britain’s shores, forcing RAF fighters to scramble to intercept them.

It has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons first, even against states that don’t have such weapons, and its official military doctrine openly reserves for Russia the right to do so.

North Korea also possesses nuclear weapons, as well as ICBMs capable of delivering them as far as Europe and the Continental US, and is now developing ballistic missile submarines (of the kind that the SNP would deny the UK).

Iran is now also developing nuclear weapons, despite its false claims to the contrary, and so far, the world’s major powers have failed to convince Iran to forego that development. Saudi Arabia, a Sunni kingdom and Iran’s biggest rival in the Islamic world, doesn’t want to be behind Tehran, and so has ordered nuclear weapons in Pakistan and ballistic missiles in China. Nobody else besides Britain is considering disarming themselves. On the contrary, more and more countries are considering ACQUIRING nuclear weapons, because they are the ONLY guarantee of national survival and security.

Contrary to the false claims of the SNP and the rest of the lunatic pro-disarmament crowd, a nuclear attack is not a purely theoretical threat of bygone Cold War days. It is more real and more deadlier a threat than ever. Consequently, the UK’s nuclear deterrent is needed now more than ever.

And the claim that nuclear weapons siphon money away from conventional capabilities is also patently false, given that maintaining the new nuclear deterrent would cost only 1.5 bn GBP per year out of an annual defence budget of almost 40 bn GBP – i.e. less than one tenth (1/10).

As you can see, all claims of the SNP and the rest of the pro-nuclear-disarmament are utterly false. Not a single of them is true. This should pour cold water on the heads of all those who seek to disarm the UK – especially the SNP lunatics who seek to break the United Kingdom apart and thus force the Royal Navy to abandon the nuclear deterrent or move it out of Scotland.

Postscript: Some leftist Scots have recently responded to this article by protesting that whatever the Scottish people decide – whether or not to leave the UK, whether or not to remove Trident from Scotland – it’s their democratic choice and should be respected. I strongly disagree, for two reasons.

Firstly, a majority vote can never make a bad, evil policy wrong. And disarming the UK unilaterally, or helping bring that about, IS evil.

Secondly, this entire “Scottish independence referendum” is the biggest scam perpetrated against the people of Scotland (and people of the entire UK) in recent decades. It has nothing to do with Scotland’s independence, building a better future for Scotland, democracy, or self-determination. All this referendum exercise is REALLY designed to do is to extract more and more concessions for the UK government and to win the SNP more votes, free publicity, and attention. In other words, it will serve no purpose other than the SNP’s and its leader’s self-aggrandizement. In still other words, the most despicable of purposes.

Posted in Ideologies, Nuclear deterrence, Threat environment, Uncategorized, World affairs | Leave a Comment »

An uncomfortable truth about most people – and about how the world really works

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on August 21, 2014


Have you ever wondered, Dear Reader, why it’s difficult to obtain something (sometimes even simple things) from other people? And to land a date with a quality woman? And a well-paying job at a good company?

Today, I’ll explain to you why. In so doing, I will reveal an uncomfortable secret about most people on this planet – and about how the world works.

And I’ll do it for free.

After you read what it is, you’ll understand why people often demand enormous effort of you, and enormous rewards from you, to obtain something from them – sometimes the most banal things. Why people won’t help you out even when you need them. Why decent, well-paying jobs are hard to obtain. Why landing a date with quality women is also hard. And thus, how to obtain all of these and thus become successful.

So what is the reason? What is the secret?

Here it is:

The vast majority (around 90-95%) of people on this planet are egoists. They’re selfish. They don’t care about anyone except themselves and their families. The only thing they care about is their self-interest (or at least what they believe is in their interest). They don’t give a damn about anything except what they want. They don’t care about anything except their own feelings, emotions, desires, and plans.

Therefore, these people don’t give a damn about you… unless they need you.

They will interact with you, and give you something, only if they need you or if you can give them something they value.

This is not right or wrong, merely natural. This is the way the world works.

Now, as I said, other people aren’t even willing to interact with you, let alone give you something, unless YOU can offer them something they truly value.

A company won’t hire you for a position unless you have all the skills, qualifications, and experience needed to perform that job well. A beautiful, intelligent woman won’t date you unless you are interesting and attractive to her (i.e. unless you are good-looking, healthy, physically fit, have a good sense of humor, and share at least some of her interest).

And even ordinary people – all of them except your closest friends and family members – won’t give you something you need, and won’t help you out in need, unless YOU give them something they want in return.

Remember, at least 90% of all people on this planet are egoists. Selfish people. They care only about getting what they want. They don’t give a damn about what you want. In fact, the vast majority of them couldn’t care less about your existence unless you have something they need.

So how to succeed with such people? How to succeed in this world full of selfish people who care only about themselves?

Here’s how:

  • Firstly, you must have something that would be of value to many people – especially the people whom you know you will need something from. (Obviously, that means figuring out early on WHO you’ll need smth from.)
  • Secondly, you must figure out how to “barter” with people – how to exchange what you have for what you want from other people.

As to the first point: you’ll need to become attractive to people. Especially to potential employers and to women. You’ll need to acquire specific skills, qualifications, and experience necessary to obtain employment at companies that pay well, and you’ll need to work very hard, to the best of your ability and the maximum of your stamina, to earn a lot. To attract women, you need to be physically fit, healthy, clean (those are the absolute prerequisites), funny, and interesting (do interesting things in your life). Other kinds of people will often demand physical things, or some quid pro quo, from you.

And as regards the second point, you must know how to use your skills, experience, and positive traits and characteristics to other people’s benefit – to give them what they want – so that they give you want you want in return (assuming you’re dealing with honest people).

In other words, what exactly do you have to offer to other people, and how exactly can you put it to use so that other people will see a benefit in using your services?

What do you have to offer, and how will others benefit if they “buy” what you have to offer?

Think of yourself as a salesman in everything you do.

Also, think of yourself everyday as a country which has resources it can sell others, as well as needs for commodities it needs but doesn’t have and must import them from others.

Think of yourself as a country which must find a profitable market for what it has to offer, and develop a way to sell it, so that it can import what it needs.

If you intend to apply for a job, read the posting carefully and think: do you meet all the requirements? How will hiring you benefit the company? How will it profit if it hires you instead of the dozens of other candidates who have applied for this job?

But, of course, you can succeed with other people only if you already have something to offer that they value.

Companies value experience, skills, and formal qualifications (such as a driver’s and a forklift operator’s license).

Quality women value physically fit, funny, interesting guys.

If you don’t have something that these, or other, people value, you will never succeed in this world.

So, whether your goal is to land a well-paying job or win the heart of a quality woman, you need to have something they highly value. Without it, you’ll be an irrelevant nobody to them. To 90% of the people around you.

You need to be desirable from the start.

If you are not, you will never be successful in life.

A guy who applies for a job for which he lacks the requisite experience or formal qualifications will not obtain that job – unless and until he gets qualified for that job.

A guy who is a dirty slob, a boring or deadly serious guy, or who doesn’t lead an interesting life, will never get to date quality women – unless he seriously changes his life.

A guy who wants A from someone who needs B, but doesn’t have B to offer, will never obtain A.

So take inventory: What qualifications, skills, and experience do you have? What are your personal traits and physical characteristics? What do you do in your spare time?

Then ask yourself: what do other people (those that you want something from) need, and what do they want from you?

Then: How to exchange something you have to offer for something they have?

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Hans Kristensen, Jeffrey Lewis, and others proven dead wrong yet again

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on August 21, 2014


Once again, liberal pro-unilateral-disarmament bloggers such as Hans M. Kristensen at FAS and Jeffrey Lewis of “ArmsControlWonk.com” have been proven dead wrong, as usual.

For years, these liberal pro-unilateral-disarmament activists have been falsely claiming that China’s nuclear arsenal is tiny at just 240-250 warheads; that China is not conducting any large-scale nuclear buildup; that Beijing has not equipped its missiles with multiple nuclear warheads; that the JL-2 missile cannot reach the CONUS unless the submarines carrying it are positioned in the Western Hemisphere, etc.

For over 2 years, this writer and others have been debunking the lies of these liberal anti-nuclear activists, but they nonetheless kept peddling their lies even though they probably know that they’re lying.

But now even more solid evidence has arrived: an admission from the Chinese that they’re greatly building up their nuclear arsenal. A leaked internal document of the Chinese Second Artillery Corps (China’s ground-based missile force) reveals Beijing’s plan (which is already in execution) to conduct a huge buildup of its nuclear arsenal beyond the existing force levels, including deploying multiple warheads on ballistic missiles.

The Washington Times’ Bill Gertz reports in the latest Inside the Ring column (emphasis mine):

“An internal People’s Liberation Army document has revealed plans to greatly expand the PLA’s nuclear arsenal.

“We must accelerate the process of upgrading our nuclear ICBMs, continuously perfecting our nuclear armaments structure; strengthening strategic early warning mechanisms against enemy ballistic missiles; step up the production of new generation nuclear missiles to appropriately increase the number of our nuclear warheads so that the combat effectiveness of our nuclear missile arsenal will have a qualitative leap forward,” according to a translated portion of the document obtained by Inside the Ring.

The document was produced within the past year as part of a strategy lecture for the Second Artillery Corps, the PLA’s nuclear and conventional missile forces. It provides further evidence that China is building up its nuclear forces in secret, raising new concerns about its nuclear intentions.

“Only when we solidify and enhance our trustworthy and reliable nuclear deterrence and nuclear counter-strike capabilities can we effectively contain strategic threats, buttress our status as a big power, make contribution to stopping hegemonism, safeguarding world peace,” states the document, as first reported by Kyodo News on Aug. 4.”

But it isn’t just this leaked internal document or credible studies by analysts such as General Viktor Yesin who have documented China’s MIRVing of its ICBMs (i.e. deploying multiple warheads on them); it’s also simple logic.

China has been developing MIRV (multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicle) “buses” for warheads since at least the 1980s, and has already deployed three ICBM types (DF-5, DF-31/31A, DF-41) that can carry multiple warheads. In fact, the DF-41 can carry ten warheads, and so can, in all likelihood, the DF-5 heavy ICBM, while the DF-31 can carry three.

The Chinese navy’s JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile can carry at least 4 warheads; newer variants can carry up to 12.

Why on Earth would China spend a lot of treasure developing, testing, and procuring multiple-warhead-capable missiles if it didn’t intend to deploy multiple warheads on them? That would make no sense. You do so only if you do intend to deploy multiple warheads on your ICBMs and SLBMs – and that’s what China has done.

Two other myths long peddled by Kristensen and Lewis now also bite the dust: that Chinese ballistic missile submarines have never went on patrol, and that their JL-2 missiles have a range of only 7,200-7,400 kms.

These myths now also bite the dust. As the WantChinaTimes newspaper reports:

“The PLA Navy’s nuclear-powered Type 094 submarine was spotted patrolling with the missile, which has a range of around 8,000 km and can carry multiple warheads, at the beginning of this year.”

WantChinaTimes has included this caveat in its article:

“The missile’s range still falls short of China’s ideal target range however since the Type 094 submarines need a missile with a range over 12,000 km to strike North America from South China Sea.”

However, the JL-2’s newer variants, the Jia and the Yi, have a range of 12,000 to 14,000 kms and are thus capable of what WCT speaks of.

Even the basic JL-2 variant, with a range of just 8,000 kms, is capable of destroying San Francisco if the submarine carrying it is positioned just slightly east of the 140E meridian, just slightly east of Japan; and it can destroy Seattle if the launcher is positioned in Japanese territorial waters or the Tsugaru Strait.

Besides, when operating a ballistic missile submarine, it wouldn’t be advantageous to position it too far away from the target. On the contrary, the most clever way to operate it would be to position it close to enemy shores. That way, any missiles fired by the submarine would reach their targets within minutes, leaving the opponent with little or no time to respond.

If a Chinese (or Russian) ballistic missile sub were positioned near the US West Coast, its missiles could reach any target within the Continental US within 15 minutes or less, giving the US no time to respond.

Thus, Kristensen’s and Lewis’s lies have once again been debunked.

Posted in Nuclear deterrence, Threat environment, World affairs | Leave a Comment »

Les mensonges de Regis Chomel de Jarnieu

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on August 14, 2014


Dans le nouveau Figaro du 14 aout 2014, il y a un interview avec un militant anti-automobiliste (nominalement “pour la securite routiere”), Regis Chomel de Jarnieu, president de “l’Association française de prévention des comportements sur la route”. M. Chomel de Jarnieu y a dit plusieurs mensonges. Sa mensonge la plus debile est:

“Les radars automatiques sont, pour une bonne part, à l’origine de la diminution de la mortalité au volant. Cela donne tort, encore une fois, à tous ceux qui dénoncent une politique de répression dans ce qui est, en réalité, une politique de juste sanction à l’égard d’automobilistes qui sont en rupture du contrat social.”

Mais en fait, la securite sur les routes francaises a deteriore, en lieu de s’ameliorer, a comparaison avec les premiers 7 mois (janvier-juillet) de l’an 2013. Comme Le Figaro nous informe dans un autre article:

“Malgré ces bons résultats en juillet, la Sécurité routière appelle à la vigilance, rappelant la hausse continue au cours des six premiers mois de l’année 2014 du nombre de tués sur les routes.  Ainsi à la fin du mois de juillet, la mortalité s’établit à 1.833 morts à la fin juillet contre 1.761 sur la même période en 2013, soit une hausse de 4,1%.”

Donc toute cette politique de repression extreme contre les automobiliste n’a fait RIEN, totallement RIEN, a ameliorer la securite sur les routes francaises. Tous les radars et controles de vitesse, toutes les peines, tous les retraits des points n’ont fait RIEN a ameliorer la securite routiere en France. Il y a avait PLUS des morts sur les routes francaises cette annee, jusqu’a la fin du juillet, que pendant les premiers 7 mois de 2013!

Il n’y a donc AUCUNE raison pour se feliciter. Au lieu de se feliciter et de se disputer qu’est ce qui a fait baisser la mortalite routiere, il faudrait achever une baisse reelle.

Au niveau qu’une baisse de mortalite a ete achevee (par rapport mensuel, juillet 2014 vs juillet 2013), ce n’est pas du a la repression debile de l’Etat francais, mais a l’amelioration continue des voitures sur les routes francaises, ainsi que l’education des conducteurs francais.

Mais, comme j’ai ecrit ci-dessus, il n’y avait une vrai baisse de la mortalite routiere cette annee. Donc il n’y a pas de raison pour se feliciter.

En plus, Le Figaro revele que beaucoup de Francais se fichent des limitations de vitesse, donc les automobilistes n’ont vraiment leve la pied.

Toute la repression policiere contre les automobilistes a totallement echouee, et ce n’est pas surprenant pourquoi. La vitesse n’est pas la premiere ou meme la deuxieme plus importante cause des accidents routiers en France. La premiere, c’est l’alcool (responsable pour un tiers de tous les morts sur les routes); la deuxieme, c’est la somnolence (responsable aussi pour un tiers); et la troisieme, c’est les exces de vitesse (25%), suivi par le non-respect des distances de securite et le refus de passage.

En plus, Le Figaro a recettement revele des comportements tres mauvais de la part des automobilistes: un usage frequent des telephones portables au volant et le fait que 10% de tous les personnes tues sur les routes francaises en 2013 ne portaient pas sa ceinture de securite.

J’ai deja ecrit que faut-il faire pour ameliorer la securite routiere en France. Il faut tacler les VRAIES causes de la mortalite routiere: l’alcool, les drogues, et les portables au volant; la somnolence; le non-respect des distances de securite; et le refus de passage et de porter la ceinture de securite. Des peines joueront certainement un role, mais l’education, la construction des points de repos, et des autres mesures auront aussi un role a jouer. La penalisation du mauvais comportement, ce n’est pas assez.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/automobile/2014/08/14/30002-20140814ARTFIG00210-baisse-de-la-mortalite-routiere-les-sanctions-et-la-formation-y-sont-pour-beaucoup.php

http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2014/08/14/97001-20140814FILWWW00143-baisse-de-la-mortalite-routiere-de-116.php

Posted in Road safety | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Good metrics to measure fighters with

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on August 12, 2014


In 1982, weapon systems analyst Pierre Sprey published a study briefly narrating air-to-air combat from World War 1 to the 1970s and outlining on that basis what he believes are the characteristics and capabilities a fighter must have to prevail in air combat. By that yardstick, he then measured a number of fighters that were then in service, in development, or had been retired from service some years earlier. I’ve read the study and I must say that, except his requirement that one must outnumber the enemy, his criteria are valid and constitute a very good – perhaps even the best – yardstick to measure fighters with. Specifically, Sprey wrote that to prevail in combat against other fighters, the aircraft a nation decides to procure must be able to (in that order of importance):

  • Surprise the enemy by detecting him before he detects that aircraft, positiong itself behind the enemy’s rear (his weakest point, usually a blind spot), and shooting him down by surprise (80% of all fighters shot down in wars from WW1 to the 1970s went down without their crews knowing what hit them);
  • Outnumber the enemy;
  • Outmaneuver (outaccelerate, outdecelerate, outclimb, and outturn) the enemy and transition from one maneuver to another more seamlessly than he can; and
  • Outlast the enemy and run him out of fuel if the fight is prolonged.

The requirement that one must outnumber the enemy is not valid. If numbers were the key to victory, let alone the second most important characteristic of fighters as Sprey claims, then virtually every war in history should’ve been won through sheer numbers. If that were the case, the RAF would’ve never been able to defeat the much larger German fighter fleet in the Battle of Britain, the Israeli AF would’ve been utterly trounced by its Arab counterparts in the Six Day and Yom Kippur Wars (and Israel would’ve probably ceased to exist, as its Arab neighbors wish), and the small global fleet of F-15s would’ve been utterly trounced by its foreign opponents. This is not to say that a small fleet of “silver bullet” aircraft will suffice to defeat the enemy. Eventually, he’ll be able to overwhelm the “silver bullet” fleet with sheer numbers. But numbers are not the decisive factor in air to air warfare, let alone the 2nd most important factor. But Sprey’s other three requirements are absolutely correct. Common sense alone validates most of them. So does Sun Tzu, the greatest military mind in history, who believed you should always try to take the enemy by surprise, and when you can’t, you should outmaneuver him. (He did not believe, however, that having greater numbers gives one any advantage, and he was opposed to prolong fights. History proved him right and Sprey wrong.) So, modern fighters compare to each other by Sprey’s yardstick like this:

  • The best fighters, by his criteria, are the Dassault Rafale and the Typhoon. They’re small and thus difficult to see visually. They don’t emit much heat, so they’re hard to detect with IR sensors. Smoke is not an issue with them. Very maneuverable, they have a good rate of climb (60,000 ft per minute in the Rafale’s case, 62,000 ft/min for the Typhoon), very low wing loading, high thrust/weight ratios, and can thus outturn the enemy; and being light, they can transition from one maneuver to another seemlessly. They also have IRSTs  – and lots of fuel to burn, and can thus outlast the enemy.
  • Their only weakness, such as it is, is they can fly no faster than Mach 2. However, that’s a speed most fighters never fly at, except for a few seconds perhaps. Both the Rafale and the Typhoon have supercruise capability, meaning they can cruise efficiently at supersonic speeds without using fuel-gulping, superhot afterburners.
  • The Gripen is even smaller, lighter, and more maneuverable, but its very low ceiling and top speed, and short combat radius, let it down significantly. An enemy could run a Gripen out of fuel, or outrun it, easily. It also carries a puny weapons load (8 missiles).
  • The F-16 is better than the Gripen. Its only weaknesses are: a very short combat radius (550 kms), the risk of being run out of fuel, and the fact it doesn’t have supercruise capab. and can’t fly faster than Mach 2. It also lacks an IRST. But the F-16 should, in most cases, be able to defeat the enemy without prolonged fighting. The same applies to the even lighter, more maneuverable F-5, which has repeatedly ran F-15s out of fuel.
  • The J-35 Draken, the Mirage III and 5, and the F-86 are too old to take into account. However, they were highly maneuverable, nimble, simple, and cheap aircraft. Older pilots of Israeli Air Force have said of all fighters they’ve ever flown, the best was the Mirage III – which the IAF liked so much, it developed its own variants of it.
  • The MiG-29 is as good as, if not better than, the F-16. It flies and climbs faster, is almost as good at turning, has a better combat radius, and is of roughly the same size. It is a far, far better fighterplane than it gets credit for being.
  • The Flankers are (excepting the Su-33) very maneuverable, have good rates of climb, lots of weapons, lots of fuel to burn, long combat radii, and lots of diverse countermeasures. However, they are big and hot, and thus easy to see visually and with IRSTs, esp. if they light up their radar (which will also give their position away thanks to RWRs).
  • Also, their climb rates and wing loading (again, excepting the Su-33, which is downright pathetic) are still inferior to those of the Rafale and the Typhoon, as well as the MiG-29). By the latter measure, they’re also inferior to the F-15, F-22, and F-16. The J-11 and J-16 gain on the Rafale/Typhoon duo with a climb rate of 300-305 metres/second, and the J-15 naval fighter overtakes them at 325 m/s. It is currently the best naval fighter in the world and will easily trounce the F/A-18 A thru F.
  • So how does the “Super Hornet” compare to its Chinese counterpart (or to the Rafale and the Typhoon)? Pathetically.
  • It has a climb rate of just 228 m/s; a wing loading of 459 kg/sq m; a T/W ratio of just 0.93; an inability to sustain more than 7.6Gs; and a top speed of just Mach 1.8 compared to Mach 2.35 for the J-15. Also, its engines smoke as badly as those of the F-15 and the now-retired F-14 “Tom Turkey”, to which it is also decisively inferior.
  • The F-15 and the F-22 are very fast, fly very high, and carry lots of missiles. The F-22, in addition, is stealthy and supercruising. But they are big and thus easy to see visually from at least 5 miles; very hot (though there are IR sig reduction measures on the F-22); and the F-15’s engines emit a lot of smoke, making it even easier to see, while the F-22 lacks an IRST and relies on its radar as its sole sensor. This is a huge mistake; the moment you light your radar up, you’re a dead duck because the enemy, thanks to his RWR, will know where you are and who you are (US radar operates at completely different frequencies and wavelengths than Russian radar). If you lock on a radar-guided missile on the enemy, he’ll know a launch is imminent and will duck it.
  • The MiG-21 is very light, maneuverable, and as fast as an F-16, but it can’t carry much ordnance, has little fuel to burn, and its pilot lack rearward visibility, bc the MiG-21 was designed as an interceptor in the belief that dogfighting was obsolete. The Indian AF’s MiG-21 fleet was completely trounced by the Pakistanis, flying the Mark VI Sabre, in 1971… 21 years after the Sabre first saw combat over Korea.
Bottom line: smaller, lighter, more maneuverable, well-armed fighters, if they have enough fuel to outlast the enemy, can trounce bigger, more complex, more expensive fighters. The key to prevailing in air combat is not stealthiness or who has the biggest, most capable radar, or who flies the fastest and the highest. The key is surprise, maneuverability, and outlasting the enemy. And by that yardstick, the Rafale and the Typhoon have only two peers: the MiG-29 and the J-15 Flying Shark.

Posted in Air combat | 1 Comment »

Un agenda franco-chinois

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on August 9, 2014


L’economie francaise reste stagnante, il y a plus de 3 millions de chomeurs en France, et dans la conquete des marches emergents du monde – la Chine, la Russie, l’Iran, le Bresil, le Vietnam, l’Inde – la France reste derriere l’Allemagne et souvent aussi le Royaume-Uni.

Comment redresser cela?

Il faut commencer avec le plus grand marche emergent au monde: celui de Chine, avec 1,3 milliard de consommateurs.

Selon fr.news.yahoo.com:

“Les exportations françaises en Chine se sont élevées à 14,7 milliards d’euros l’an dernier et les importations depuis la Chine à 40,5 milliards, soit un déficit commercial de 25,8 milliards, après 26,1 milliards en 2012 et 27 milliards en 2011.”

En mars dernier, le president Hollande a signe des contrats avec le president chinois Xi Jinping qui valent 18 Mds d’Euros, mais c’est toujours trop peu. Ce n’est pas assez. Il y a toujours un deficit commercial de 25,8 milliards par an (2013). Il faut faire bcp plus afin que la France puisse conqueter le vaste marche chinois. En le faisant, la France peut construire plus qu’une forte position dans ce marche – elle peut construire un fort partenariat geopolitique avec la Chine. Specifiquement:

  • La France devrait reconnaitre publiquement les Iles Senkaku, Spratly, et Paracelsus comme territoire chinois et partie integrale de la Chine, et soutenir diplomatiquement (notamment en Conseil de Securite de l’ONU) les efforts de la Chine de s’en emparer, si celle-ci ouvre son marche, sans limitations et sans aucun tarif, a tous les produits francais, si les compagnies aeriennes chinoises achetent plus d’avions d’Airbus, et si les elites chinoises achetent des voitures francaises et pas d’autres. Il faut que la Chine ouvre son marche a TOUS les produits francais, pas seulement le porc et le vin.
  • La France devrait vendre a la Chine la mine d’uran a Fanay pour exploitation, et de la terre cultivable actuellement non utilisee pour la cultivation du vin aux vignards chinois.
  • La France devrait commencer l’exploitation de ses reserves de manganium sous-maritimes (sous la mer) autour de Tahiti et de la Reunion et exporter le manganium en Chine (mais aussi aux autres marches emergents, comme l’Inde et la Coree du Sud).
  • L’Etat francais devrait negocier la vente de ses actifs en PSA Peugeot Citroen et Renault au constructeur chinois Dongfeng, et de ses nombreux chateaux et hoteaux particuliers aux millionnaires chinois.
  • La France devrait augmenter, de maniere significative, sa production agroalimentaire, afin d’exporter plus de nourriture au marche chinois.
  • La France devrait faire signer un accord de voyage sans visa a l’Union Europeenne et la Chine.
  • La France devrait augmenter le tempo de l’exploitation des ressources de nickel a la Nouvelle Caledonie si les marches emergents en ont besoin.
  • Quand le budget francais est met en equilibre, la France devrait vendre toutes ses ressources minerales sous-maritimes a la Chine afin de se desendetter.
  • Il faut creer un agence qui fera une promotion constante des produits francais dans le monde, particulierement en Chine. Il faut notamment promuvoir les voitures, boissons alcooliques, et les autres produits de luxe francais.

Il faut aussi cooperer avec la Chine dans le domaine militaire. Notamment, il faut:

  • Signer avec la Chine un accord de non-espionage (no spy agreement) et de defense mutuelle en cyberspace.
  • Garantir mutuellement l’utilisation des constellations de satellites de navigation Galileo et Beidou par les forces de missiles des deux nations.
  • Signer avec la Chine un accord qui permettrait au CEA des achats d’uran de haut et de bas enrichement, et de pluton, a la Chine, si besoin.
  • Mettre en ouvre des exercises annuelles jointes des armees aeriennes francaise et chinoise, notamment dans le domaine du combat aerien, afin que l’AdlA puisse pratiquer les maneuvres du combat aerien avec des pilotes chinois de J-7, J-10, J-11/15/16, Su-27/30, et J-31.
  • Signer un accord qui permettra a l’AdlA francaise d’utiliser le vaste espace aerien chinois pour l’entrainement et des exercises.
  • Acheter des avions discrets J-31 a la Chine dans l’avenir.

 

Posted in Economic affairs, World affairs | Leave a Comment »

Political Parties: The Greatest Danger to Individual Liberty

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on August 3, 2014


What is the greatest danger to your and my individual liberty? To your and my personal and economic freedom?

You may answer, “Barack Obama”, “the IRS”, “gun-grabbers”, “political correctness”, “the Leftist media”, etc. But you would be wrong.

Political correctness is just one of the many symptoms of the loss of freedom. The IRS, the Leftist media, and the gun-grabbing BATF are just some of the federal government’s tools of oppressing you and taking away your liberty.

Barack Obama is just one among many millions of power-hungry Democratic Party politicians, the current de facto leader of that Party, and a faithful implementer of that Party’s policies.

Because Barack Obama is just a part of the problem.

The biggest problem, and the source of all others, the greatest danger to your individual liberty and mine, is political parties.

It is no accident that in his Farewell Address, the biggest danger George Washington warned against were political parties.

Many people, especially on the political Right, are annoyed by tax and spending hikes, the ballooning national debt, the repression of right-wing groups by the IRS, the pro-Democratic-Party bias of the “mainstream media”, Hollywood, schools, and universities, the importation of millions of Third World socialist-minded illegals into the country, gun and fracking bans, Obamacare, and continued other bans on various kinds of activities the federal and state governments don’t approve of.

But these are mere symptoms of the disease. Its root cause is simple: political parties.

All of that evil repression and ever-growing limitation of your personal and economic freedom is occurring for a practical reason. None of it is happening by accident. Nor is it happening for purely ideological reasons, i.e. it isn’t happening because the Democrats believe this will make the country and its citizens better off.

While some Democrats, especially on the far Left, believe that with ideological zeal, the truth is, most Democrats, including Obama, don’t care one iota whether this will make the country and its people better off or not. They couldn’t care less whether it will help the country or drive it off the cliff. They don’t care if it will make the American people wealthier or poorer.

The Democratic Party doesn’t mean well. (I’ll get to the Republican Party in a minute.) It means ill.

It doesn’t care whether its policies will make the country and its people better off or not. All it cares about is whether its policies will allow it to REMAIN IN POWER – e.g. by maintaining and expanding the permanent dependency class which lives off federal handouts paid for by taxpayers. (This includes the couch potatoes who spend their entire day watching TV on their plasma screens while eating junk food.)

For the same reason – to REMAIN IN POWER INDEFINITELY – the Democratic Party has, since the 1960s, facilitated the importation of tens of millions of legal and illegal immigrants from the Third World – people with socialist, collectivist mindsets. People who, instead of changing themselves to adapt America, demand that America change to adapt to them.

Republicans, for their part, are afraid of dismantling, or even seriously cutting, the welfare state, because they know most Americans want to KEEP their federal handouts. If they proposed scrapping them, most Americans would rise in protest and shout: “Don’t you even THINK about taking away MY Social Security, MY Medicare/Medicaid, MY foodstamps, MY free cell phone, MY farm subsidies, MY unemployment insurance, MY welfare, and MY XXXX!”

As Mitt Romney has said, the dependency class is a permanent voter bloc of the Democratic Party.

Likewise, Republicans are deadly afraid to vote against amnesty for illegal aliens, because they fear (and are being told from all sides) that if they oppose amnesty, Hispanics will forever oppose them, which would mean their PARTY would never again REGAIN POWER. And they do not want to become a permanent MINORITY PARTY. They want to once again be THE PARTY IN POWER.

Note that I’ve repeatedly capitalized phrases like “REMAIN IN POWER”, “REGAIN POWER”, and “THE PARTY IN POWER.” I’ve done this deliberately, because ultimately, the only thing the Democratic AND the Republican Party want is to BE IN POWER. POWER OVER YOU, to be exact.

And they already exercise a good measure of POWER OVER YOU, regardless of which PARTY IS IN POWER.

How did this all come about? Because a long time ago, long before you were born, power-hungry politicians in both parties – and the parties themselves, as organizations – became so obsessed with power for its own sake that they implemented a long-term plan that allowed them to seize real, huge power over the American people – and the people unwittingly accepted the plan.

Political parties have always been a danger, and George Washington warned against them in his Farewell Address. He knew that the greatest danger to individual liberty was posed by political parties. During his presidency, two parties – the Federalist and the Democratic-Republican Party – were formed.

Both parties represented only specific special interest groups and some regions of the country instead of representing all Americans. The Federalists represented the North, the finance world, merchants, and the nascent American industry. The Democratic-Republicans (Jeffersonians) represented the South and agriculture. Both were beholden to their regions’ special interests and thus acted solely for their benefit.

But at least until the Civil War, the Constitution was strictly obeyed in America, so it wasn’t possible for any governing party to have any significant power over the nation at large. The Constitution’s limits on the Feds’ powers and the American system of federalism (states’ rights) meant that the federal government had very little power, just like the Swiss government today.

So what happened?

By the late 19th century, that darn Constitution became so inconvenient and so onerous an obstacle to political parties’ and politicians’ hunger for power that it was simply completely trashed and cast aside. And the American people accepted this.

It Began In the 19th Century

Here’s what happened: in the late 19th century, there were powerful special interest groups in the US which wanted to use the fed. govt. as a vehicle for their private benefit. So did many politicians, both Dems and Progressive Repubs, who were also hungry for power for its own sake.

But they couldn’t really have much power over the American people, let alone make any real profit from the fed. govt., as long as the Constitution’s limits were in place and a majority of Americans insisted on obeying them.

So they did three things. Firstly, where and when possible, they amended the Constitution by getting the 16th and 17th Amendment ratified.

The former gave the federal government an UNLIMITED source of income to become bloated. The latter dismantled what was arguably the GREATEST limit on the federal government power: a Senate appointed by, and answerable to, state governments.

But there were still some other limits on federal power, like the nondelegation doctrine (making the Fed Reserve unconstitutional) and the Enumerated Powers Clause – oh, and that darned 10th Amendment. So what did those power-hungry party politicians (mostly liberal Democrats, but also Progressive Repubs) do?

Collectivist Brainwashers Seized the Education System

They seized control of the education system, thus brainwashing students from the 1st grade to graduate school into believing that:

a) the Constitution really doesn’t limit the federal government’s power – that it actually allows its power to expand over time;

b) that the fed. govt. has very broad powers under the Constitution; and

c) that the Constitution doesn’t matter, what matters is what people want (and say through opinion polls).

And so, politicians promised the people they’d give them “free” handout sof all kinds, as long as they’d vote for them. Thus, they effectively began buying votes. For themselves and their parties.

Of course the Democrats knew that they couldn’t institute socialism in the US immediately like it was done in Bolshevik Russia. So they began instituting it step-by-step, in small steps, in an imperceptible, gradual fashion. Later, the leader of the CPUSA said that the American people would eventually accept socialism – not outright, but in small, imperceptible steps. And so it continues to happen.
 
But the Democrats didn’t implement statism, and aren’t implementing socialism, because they think it is the right way to revive the economy and help suffering Americans.
 
They’re doing so because that has created a huge, permanent dependency class which owes their PARTY and which will continue to reelect their PARTY NOMINEES into office.

The huge federal bureaucracy that employs millions of people also owes its existence to the Democratic Party. So all those people – federal employees and the dependency class (including most blacks and Hispanics) – always vote Democratic, no matter whom the Democrats nominate – even if they nominate the worst possible scoundrel, like Obama.

Giving all these people handouts, and making all of them dependent on the federal government and on the Democratic Party, serves only one purpose: to KEEP THE PARTY IN POWER.

Republicans don’t advocate cutting those welfare programs and the federal bureaucracy too much, because they fear alienating the dependency class and thus being prevented from RETURNING TO POWER.

Elsewhere around the world, in the West, parties have used them same method to seize and retain POWER, while outside the West, parties have often used the force of arms to seize and keep POWER. Vide China, North Korea, Vietnam, and Cuba.

But wherever they operate, and whoever they are, their goal is always the same: to SEIZE AND KEEP POWER OVER PEOPLE.

Because that is the ultimate goal of ALL POLITICAL PARTIES: to SEIZE, KEEP, AND EXPAND POWER OVER PEOPLE.

For that reason, they are the greatest danger to your individual liberty and mine. For, as Ronald Reagan said, “Man is not free unless government is limited.”

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

National Defense Panel Confirms What I’ve Been Saying For a Long Time

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on August 2, 2014


The bipartisan National Defense Panel – a group of former high-ranking defense officials and analysts appointed by the Defense Secretary and by the Chairmen and Ranking Members of the Congressional defense committees – has recently released its report on the state of America’s military.

This report is a clear-eyed, unbiased analysis of America’s defense needs and was commissioned by Congress as a credible alternative to the DOD’s “Quadrennial Defense Review”, which basically no one outside the Federal Government considers credible.

That’s because successive QDRs have been irredeemably biased, rigged, and not credible, because they were written AFTER defense budgets were proposed, and served ONLY to justify budgetary decisions (read: crippling defense cuts) already decided by the administration in office.

The latest (2014) QDR exemplifies this trend well. It greatly downplays the threats to America’s national security, and consequently, the military resources needed to counter them. In effect, it only serves to justify the Obama administration’s unjustifiable, dramatic defense cuts.

The 2014 QDR, like the previous ones, was driven by the budget – not the other way around, as it should be.

Under the Obama administration, defense policy is driven by how much the President and the Congress willl decide to spend on defense.

The National Defense Panel, by contrast, has conducted a holistic, comprehensive, unbiased review of America’s defense needs and has concluded that the threats to America’s security, and consequently, the amount of resources needed to counter them (money, ships, aircraft, etc.), far exceed what the White House and the Congress are prepared to admit or invest.

The National Defense Panel’s report clearly says the same things I’ve been saying for years, namely, that:

  • America’s defense spending in the coming decade will be woefully inadequate if sequestration persists.
  • The US Navy is too small and needs to have between 320 and 346 ships.
  • The US Air Force is also too small.
  • The vast majority of the US military’s equipment needs to be recapitalized and replaced.
  • America’s aging nuclear arsenal is in urgent need of replacement.
  • America’s monopoly on advanced military technology is a thing of the past.
  • America’s technological edge over its potential foes is eroding very fast, and faster than Washington officials are prepared to admit.
  • The panoply of anti-access/area-denial weapons fielded by various foreign nations, especially China and Russia, is turning entire regions into no-go zones for the US military except the handful of American platforms (such as B-2 bombers) that are stealthy, survivable, and lethal enough to pounce on the enemy.

The Panel does not pull any punches when it comes to condemning sequestration, and warns that the US military will be gutted if this diabolical mechanism persists.

Folks, this is exactly what I’ve been saying for a long, long time.

I’ve been warning since 2011 that sequestration is going to completely GUT the US military, making it unable to properly defend US national interests.

I’ve also been warning about the other forementioned issues for years.

Once again, I’ve been proven ABSOLUTELY RIGHT, and those who denied the above facts have been proven completely wrong. They include POGO, Ron Paul, Rand Paul, Pat Buchanan, Dan Mitchell, Larry Kudlow, and Veronique de Rugy.

http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Ensuring-a-Strong-U.S.-Defense-for-the-Future-NDP-Review-of-the-QDR_0.pdf

Posted in Defense spending, Obama administration follies, Threat environment | Leave a Comment »

Rebuttal of Joe Cirincione’s pro-unilateral-disarmament lies

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on July 31, 2014


The Obama administration has recently – and very belatedly – announced it has found Russia in violation of the INF treaty, which prohibits Moscow and Washington from developing, testing, deploying, or otherwise possessing ground-launched missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers.

Russia has been flagrantly violating the treaty since at least 2010, and we conservatives have been warning about this since 2012, when credible reports of such violations first emerged. However, until now, the Obama administration and the pro-arms-control crowd have been denying this fact – until it became too obvious and too easily provable to deny it.

So now that Russia has effectively made the INF treaty a dead letter, the administration and its sycophants in the treasonous pro-unilateral-disarmament community are calling on the US to continue to unilaterally adhere to the treaty and to cut its own arsenal even further, while Russia is building up its own and deploying missiles banned by the INF treaty.

This pro-unilateral-disarmament opinion was recently expressed by Joe Cirincione, president of the treasonous Ploughshares Fund, and his “research assistant” on the extremely leftist “DefenseOne” website.

Cirincione falsely claims that

“Some arms control critics want to use the issue as an excuse to jettison a system of arms restraints carefully constructed over the decades.”

Completely false. We, critics of “arms control” (which in fact means America’s unilateral disarmament), simply want the US to stop unilaterally adhering to treaties that no one else complies with. The INF treaty is an excellent example.

It makes NO SENSE WHATSOEVER for the US to continue to slavishly and unilaterally adhere to a treaty that Russia has been flagrantly violating for years, and continues to violate (and will certainly continue to).

Cirincione writes that

“Concerns are raised privately in hope of resolving them. When that fails, they are made public. When that fails tougher diplomacy is tried.”

But all of that has utterly failed – and was doomed to fail. Why? Because continuing to comply with the INF Treaty is decidedly NOT in Russia’s national interest, plain and simple. Russia faces a huge missile and nuclear threat right on its doorstep – China. China possesses over 1,200 short-range, and over 120 medium-range ballistic missiles (DF-4, DF-21, DF-25, DF-26), as well as hundreds of DH-10 and CJ-10 ground-launched cruise missiles. These missiles allow China to target virtually any spot within Russia without involving its strategic (intercontinental) missile force, leaving it free to focus on the US. See the map below (DOD, Annual Report to Congress on the Military Power of the PRC, 2008).

PLA_ballistic_missiles_range-590x362

And “hope of resolving concerns” NEVER works. Hope is the mother of fools.

Cirincione also falsely claims that:

“Pulling out of a treaty that blocks the Russians from deploying weapons that we don’t have and don’t need would be foolish. “Releasing Russia from existing limits on strategic nuclear forces makes no sense, especially at this time of severe tensions between the West and the Kremlin,” says Tom Collina of the Arms Control Association.”

Utterly false. What is foolish and makes no sense is to continue to adhere to arms reduction treaties that NO ONE ELSE adheres to. Russia has already “released itself” from its arms control obligations – by simply violating them. There is no mortal force, no earthly force, that can bring them into compliance. There is no treaty that can “block” them from deploying weapons they want to possess. Treaties are just pieces of paper. If a rogue power like Russia decides not to comply with them – as Russia has decided – it will simply violate them.

And Russia has, for several years, been violating the INF treaty with impunity.

If the US doesn’t withdraw from these useless, suicidal arms reduction treaties, it will leave itself at a severe disadvantage. US withdrawal would be a mere formality. Russia itself has been grousing about formally withdrawing from INF for years, claiming (rightly) that the treaty is obsolete, unjust, and doesn’t serve its national interest, because it bars only Russia and the US – and no one else – from having intermediate-range missiles.

The question, therefore, is quite simple: Should the US continue to UNILATERALLY adhere to treaties Russia is not abiding by and has no intention of abiding by? Unsurprisingly, the pro-unilateral disarmament traitors at Ploughshares and the ACA say “yes, America should continue to unilaterally disarm itself.”

ACA’s Tom Collina further blatantly lies that:

“If the United States were to stop reducing its nuclear forces under the 2010 New START treaty, Russia would likely do the same, and could even build up its forces. (…) Rubio and his colleagues* go too far with a March 25 resolution that would hold Russia accountable for “being in material breach of its obligations” under the treaty by calling for a halt to U.S. implementation of further strategic nuclear reductions, a move that would likely trigger a similar Russian response.”

Those are also blatant lies – just like everything else ACA and Ploughshares claim. Russia is NOT reducing ANYTHING – except reducing arms control treaties to dead letters. Russia is ALREADY building up its nuclear arsenal, and has been for several years – with the Russian nuclear buildup ACCELERATING after New START was ratified. That’s because New START obligates only the US – but not Russia – to cut its strategic nuclear arsenal, and doesn’t even limit Russia’s tactical nuclear arsenal at all.

It is RUSSIA that is building up its nuclear arsenal, while the US is disarming itself unilaterally.

Cirincione then arrogantly and wrongly invokes Ronald Reagan in defense of the INF treaty, and of utterly failed arms control policies in general:

“Before letting loose the wrecking ball, they should check in with one of the principle architects of the regime and one of the toughest and most pro-arms control presidents inU.S. history: Ronald Reagan.”

Some REAL advice from the REAL Ronald Reagan is instructive here. When his administration found the Soviet Union in violation of the (signed but never-ratified by the US) SALT II treaty, it withdrew the US from it.

Reagan also wanted to withdraw the US from the ABM treaty to free the US to develop missile defenses as it wished, but liberal bureaucrats in the State Department (who hated him since he took office and hoped he would be gone by 1985) resisted the idea so fiercely that it took another 13 years and two Republican presidents to finally kill that useless treaty.

As Reagan himself has stated: “We adhere to our treaty obligations. Those who wish us harm don’t.”

Cirincione also falsely claims that:

“This violation is more than a technical violation, but since it is not an immediate threat to the U.S. or our allies, there is time to use the established arms control mechanism to pressure Russia to halt the cruise missile program, verifiably dismantle any missiles tested in violation of the limits and agree to abide by the treaty’s terms.”

Dead wrong again. This violation IS an immediate threat to the US AND its allies. These intermediate range missiles allow Russia to target its allies in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia (and all US bases there) with very accurate missiles carrying very deadly payloads. This is a very urgent threat. And the idea that “there is time to pressure Russia” to comply with the treaty is also utterly false. The US has known of Russia’s violation for at least 4 years, if not more, and has been trying to pressure Russia to comply for years – since at least 2012. Yet, it has failed.

Why? Because Russia, as it has already stated on so many occassions, will NOT abide by the INF treaty – which is disadvantageous to both Russia and the US.

Cirincione further lies that:

“We have nothing to gain from pulling out of the INF treaty. We already have long-range nuclear weapons trained on hundreds of targets in Russia. We don’t need a few dozen more.”

Also utterly false. Actually, Russia now has more ICBMs, strategic bombers, and nuclear warheads than the US, and plans on adding still more, so the US DOES need to build up its nuclear arsenal – and fast. Moreover, deploying IRBMs (nuclear- or conventional-armed ones) in Europe and Asia would enable the US to hold at least some Russian and Chinese targets at risk without involving America’s strategic missile force. It would also allow the US to expand its conventional precision strike options against any targets.

Contrary to Cirincione’s lies, America has nothing to gain by remaining a party to the INF treaty, to which only America adheres, thus essentially disarming itself. But disarming the US unilaterally, so that it will be vulnerable to Russia, is precisely Ploughshares’ and ACA’s goal.

Cirincione then claims further:

“If we built new intermediate-range missiles, where would we deploy them? Europe? The last time we tried that, millions of citizens took to the streets of Europe in protest of U.S. and Russian weapons. There is no reason to revisit the failed policies of the past.”

Actually, the REALLY failed policies of the past (and the present) are the arms control policies Ploughshares, the ACA, and the Obama administration advocate: disarming the US unilaterally, and unilaterally adhering to arms control treaties. This is supposed to encourage others to be nice and disarm themselves. In practice, it has never worked. It has always failed spectacularly.

Russia has NEVER complied with ANY arms control treaties it has signed. It has flagrantly violated every one of them. That previous US presidents have allowed Moscow to get away with that is NO justification for letting Russia off the hook today. THAT is one of the failed policies of the past.

By contrast, Reagan’s deployment of US intermediate-range missiles in 1983 – which Cirincione falsely claims was a “failed policy” – actually reestablished nuclear balance between the US and the USSR in Europe, countered Russia’s 1,200 intermediate-range missiles there, and forced Gorbachev, in 1987, to agree to dismantle all of these missiles. Gorbachev wanted to stop the arms race and reduce Soviet military spending to try save the stagnant Soviet economy. But he couldn’t do so unilaterally, so he had to agree to a treaty.

Because you can bring Russians into agreement ONLY when negotiating and acting from a position of STRENGTH, not weakness and appeasement. Unilaterally adhering to arms control treaties nobody else complies with leads to America’s weakness and dramatically REDUCES America’s security.

Cirincione also approvingly quotes two Russian propagandists saying that:

““In the history of U.S.-Soviet and U.S.-Russian arms control there have been dozens of similar cases—both parties have raised concern about the actions of the other,” note treaty experts Nikolai Sokov and Miles Pomper. “The majority of these concerns remained unresolved for years until they lost relevance. As a rule, these are technical issues that are discussed by technical experts outside public eye.””

Blatant lies. And Russia’s current violation of the INF treaty is not a mere “technical issue” – it’s a major violation and an immediate threat to US and allied security. It stems, in turn, from Russia’s desire to have an arsenal of weapons to counter China’s huge missile buildup in Asia, right on Russia’s doorstep, and Moscow’s intention to eventually kill the INF treaty.

The notion that the current Russian violation will somehow be “solved” is utterly ridiculous. Russia has already reduced the INF treaty to a dead letter and a worthless piece of paper. Its formal withdrawal – or America’s – from the treaty is now a mere question of time.

No less ridiculous is Cirincione’s utterly false claim that Russia can somehow be brought into compliance if the Senate simply confirms Frank Rose as the DOS’s verification and compliance supremo. This is utterly false; no earthly force is going to bring the Russians into compliance with an INF treaty they’ve already decided they’re going to scuttle because it doesn’t serve their interests and leaves them exposed to China.

And as for Reagan’s words that:

“No violations of a treaty can be considered to be a minor matter, nor can there be confidence in agreements if a country can pick and choose which provisions of an agreement it will comply with… correcting their violations will be a true test of Soviet willingness to enter a more constructive relationship and broaden the basis for cooperation between our two countries on security matters.”

The first part is absolutely true – but the problem is, Russia is doing PRECISELY what Reagan decried. As for the second part, Russia has no willingness to enter into a constructive relationship with the US, which it views as its adversary.

In closing his garbage screed, Cirincione falsely claims that:

“We have cajoled the Russians back into compliance before and – with the right staff in place and a united approach – we can do it again. In the process, we can prevent the Russians from rebuilding the weapons that Ronald Reagan so painstakingly destroyed.”

No, we can’t – and it’s too late for preventing them from building such weapons – because they’ve ALREADY built and deployed them. The R-500 ground-launched cruise missile, the Iskander-M and Iskander-K short-range ballistic missiles with a range exceeding 500 kms, and the Yars-M missile have already entered service.

So, to close, the question before US policymakers is quite simple:

Should the US continue to UNILATERALLY adhere to treaties Russia is not abiding by and has no intention of abiding by? Unsurprisingly, the pro-unilateral disarmament traitors at Ploughshares and the ACA say “yes, America should continue to unilaterally disarm itself.”

The US government should ignore these traitors and withdraw the US from both the INF and the New START treaty.

http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2014/07/when-russia-violates-nuclear-treaties-lets-act-reagan/90029/?oref=d-skybox

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Rebuttal of Robert Farley’s ignorant garbage about American weapons

Posted by zbigniewmazurak on July 26, 2014


The Leftist “National Interest” magazine has just published an utterly ridiculous garbage screed by an extremely leftist anti-defense hack, Robert Farley, known for his hatred of America, US military power, and American nuclear weapons in particular.

In his screed, “The Five Most Overrated Weapons of War”, Farley lists nuclear weapons, National Missile Defense, the spectacularly successful A-10 Warthog, the Tomahawk missile, and Predator drones as the 5 most overrated weapons in US history. Needless to say, all of his claims, except those about Predator drones, are blatant lies.

Take his idiotic rant against US nuclear weapons, for example:

“Nuclear weapons have, in an important sense, dominated international diplomacy for the last six decades. What they haven’t dominated is warfare, where they appear to be nearly useless in all configurations. (…) But since World War II, the United States has eschewed the use of nuclear weapons, even against capable non-nuclear opponents.  Because of the deep political complexity associated with their employment, the weapons simply have too little battlefield and strategic impact for the US to seriously entertain their use.”

Utter garbage, written of course by the completely ignorant, yet very opinionated, Robert Farley.

Nuclear weapons are the most useful, most powerful, most needed, and most UNDERrated and UNDERappreciated weapons out there. They have successfully defended the US and all its treaty allies from nuclear, chemical, biological, and large-scale conventional attack for over 68 years now. It is ONLY because of these “nearly useless in all configurations” weapons that Farley is alive today to write ignorant garbage about the weapons to which he owes his useless life.

The reason why nuclear weapons haven’t been used in actual wars is because they PREVENT wars between the powers that have them and thus force them to deal with each other either diplomatically – where, by Farley’s admission, they serve as important bargaining chips – or by proxies.

Nuclear weapons thus allow the US to subdue the enemy without fighting, which, according to Sun Tzu, is the acme of generalship.

A weapon that allows the US to win and to keep peace without fighting is worth a million times more than a weapon actually used in war.

Farley’s lunatic rambling against US missile defense systems is equally idiotic:

“The United States has wasted extraordinary resources over the past three decades on the phantom of national missile defense.  The current system of systems involves Aegis sea-based interceptors, Ground-Based Midcourse Defense, and Terminal High Altitude Air Defense. Anticipated systems include both airborne and laser components.”

No, the US has not “wasted” money on missile defense, and it is not a fantom, it’s a fact. Nor were the resources invested in it “extraordinary”; in fact, the US has spent only 164 bn since 1983 on missile defense. That works out to roughly 6 billion per year – barely 1% of the DOD’s base budget.

As for National Missile Defense, the system has passed most of its tests; even the failed tests have produced much useful data utilized to improve the system; it works; and further improvements, including redesigned kill vehicles, better sensors, newer radars, and better discrimination systems, are on the way.

And as Farley himself admits:

“Theater missile defense has made enormous strides, as has sea-based missile defense built around the Aegis SAM system. Theater systems, focused on conventional ballistic missile attack, can substantially reduce damage to civilian areas and to military installations.  Where conventional munitions are concerned, hitting 75% of the incoming warheads is very helpful.”

I will not even bother to respond to Farley’s ignorant, garbage attacks on the A-10 and the Tomahawk missile. These weapons have proven themselves – time and again – in actual wars so many times that I’ll let their record speak for itself. They don’t need me to defend themselves. Their record speaks for itself. No wonder why the Congress has barred the USAF from retiring the A-10 and appropriated money to keep producing Tomahawks. These weapons’ actual performance speaks for itself.

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